Shift in Saudi tone fuels hopes of de-escalation with Iran

The story: Iran and Saudi Arabia appear to be on track to reassess their severed ties following a rare public signal of reconciliation from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). This follows the secret talks between the two sides in Baghdad as Amwaj.media has previously reported. Yet whether Tehran and Riyadh can make progress on complex matters of contention—including the war in Yemen—remains to be seen.

The coverage: Answering questions in a lengthy interview aired on Saudi television on Apr. 27, MbS showed a remarkable willingness to speak positively about the Islamic Republic.

Having once compared Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Adolf Hitler, he spoke this time of Iran as “a neighboring country” with which he seeks “a good and distinguished relationship.”

The heir apparent to the Saudi throne noted, however, certain “negative behaviors” maintained by the Islamic Republic. In his view, the latter pertains to Iran’s “nuclear program, their support of illegal militias in some countries in the region, and their ballistic missile program.”

The gesture towards rapprochement did not go unnoticed by Iranian media, despite the ongoing wave of reactions to the controversial remarks made on a leaked audio tape by Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

Entkhab News Agency, close to Iran’s Reformist camp, lauded “the abrupt U-turn in MbS's approach toward Iran.” Qassem Moheb-Ali, the former director of the foreign ministry’s Middle East office, described the Saudi crown prince’s position as “wise” and indicative that the security-oriented exchanges between the two sides are inching closer to “political dialogue.”

Hardliner media, meanwhile, attempted to explore the reasons why the Saudis were “forced” to reach out to Tehran. In an interview with Tasnim News Agency, analyst Sabah Zangeneh explained the shift in the Saudi tone as a “realistic understanding of the situation,” since the kingdom “no longer enjoys the blessing of [former US president Donald] Trump as the unequivocal supporter of its crimes in Yemen.”

Conservative daily Javan, close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), similarly focused on “battlefield gains” made by the Iran-backed Houthis. “Their missile power and their relentless attacks deep inside Saudi territory…made MbS soften his tone,” the paper argued.

Javan’s editor, Abdollah Ganji, noted the contrast between the Saudi crown prince’s current stance on Iran and that of 2017, when he famously warned of "taking the battle inside Iran.”

The context/analysis: MbS’s surprising push for reconciliation follows recent reports of secret Iran-Saudi talks in Baghdad mediated by Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Of further note, Iran’s Ambassador to Iraq, Iraj Masjedi, declared in the days prior to the crown prince’s interview that “Tehran favors Iraqi mediation toward de-escalation in the region.”

Riyadh cut ties with Tehran in January 2016, when Iranian mobs attacked Saudi diplomatic facilities in response to the execution of an influential Saudi Shiite dissident cleric. Proxy battles waged by the two sides in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon in recent years have further exacerbated tensions.

MbS’s change in tone also coincides with apparent progress in the talks in Vienna to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The accord, initially signed between Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany), places restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief. Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Obama-era deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions.

The Saudi crown prince was notably a fervent supporter of the Trump administration’s policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran. That policy appears to be undergoing a reassessment by the Joe Biden administration, which is also adopting a vastly different tone towards Riyadh.

The future: Despite MbS’s softened rhetoric, questions linger about the extent to which the powerful prince will translate his words into action.

In an analysis of MbS’s Apr. 27 interview, Kuwaiti academic Bader Al-Saif asserted that the Saudi crown prince will only follow through with an attempt at rapprochement after Iran’s “foreign meddling and nuclear and ballistic missiles [are] sorted.” These contentious issues could make an immediate breakthrough a far-fetched prospect.

Indeed, unless there is a dramatic policy shift within the Islamic Republic establishment, it remains highly unlikely that Tehran will abandon its current regional policies let alone defense doctrine—including its support for the Houthis and its missile program.

Notwithstanding their deep differences, Iran and Saudi Arabia have sent signals that they are on the path towards some form of de-escalation. To that end, Iraq’s mediation could play a crucial role. Given the commonalities it shares with both sides, and mindful that it is often a battlefield for the disputes among regional capitals,  Baghdad has much vested in improved Saudi-Iranian relations.