It is impossible to accurately predict the ultimate outcome of Iraq’s Oct. 10 parliamentary elections. The wide-ranging discussions that are under way to form the country’s next government are deeply complex. At the heart of the prevailing contentions lies the question of whether the Shiite Coordination Framework and the Sadrist movement will form a common understanding, and whether a majority rather than consensus government will be pursued.

Sadrist leader Muqtada Al-Sadr left the umbrella group in July, with the Coordination Framework now chiefly consisting of Shiite factions which object to the vote results. These critical voices include Hadi Al-Ameri, whose Fatah Alliance lost two-thirds of its seats in the elections, and the ascendant State of Law bloc headed by former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki (2006-14). Hikmah Movement leader Ammar Al-Hakim and ex-premier Haidar Al-Abadi (2014-18) are among other key members of the Coordination Framework...