Iran is intensifying efforts to shore up its frontiers by further going on the offensive, targeting exiled opponents in neighboring countries. The stepped-up campaign comes as the Islamic Republic struggles to disentangle itself from the war in Gaza and gears up for a possible expansion of the conflict—including a direct confrontation with Israel.

Amid this broader regional context, Tehran is particularly worried about Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan. Iranian authorities accuse such actors—and their hosts—of having ties with Tel Aviv, which they vehemently deny. Facing the prospect of a potential escalation of the intelligence war with Israel, and possible open warfare with ramifications inside its...