Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham’s (HTS) takeover in Syria has intensified concern that Turkey’s ambitions extend beyond Arab states, and particularly into the South Caucasus. Given that the same key players in Syria—Iran, Russia and Turkey—are also active in the latter theater, there is a growing risk that their rivalry could escalate into open confrontation.

From Iran's perspective, the primary concern centers on a potential surprise attack by Azerbaijan—backed by Turkey—on Armenia’s southern Syunik Province to establish the contentious Zangazur Corridor. The transit project, sternly opposed by Tehran as it would sever the Iran-Armenia land border, seeks to...