The transfer of crude oil from Iraq to Turkey remains suspended, almost four months after an arbitration ruling found that Ankara owes Baghdad compensation for enabling unauthorized exports from Iraqi Kurdistan. Despite unconfirmed reports of an impending visit to Iraq by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, there are few indications of a deal on the horizon.

Origins of the dispute

Ankara and Baghdad have clashed over independent Kurdish oil export for almost a decade. Under a 2014 Ankara-Erbil agreement, oil pumped in landlocked Iraqi Kurdistan was independently sold via Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Of note, most of federal Iraq’s oil exports are shipped through the southern Gulf coast.

In reaction to the launch of independent Kurdish exports, Iraq filed an arbitration case with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC). Baghdad argued that Turkey had broken a 1973 pipeline agreement by allowing oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan without its permission. The ICC's March decision rested on a stipulation in the 1973 agreement's annex that Turkey would only purchase oil via...