Ahead of widely anticipated retaliation from the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ over recent high-profile attacks in Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen attributed to Israel, a clash of narratives and shuttle diplomacy are being pursued. These endeavors are geared to shape the actions of Iran and its regional allies, and by extension, possible next steps by Israel.

While there is little dispute that Israel’s Mossad spy agency was behind the killing of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, there is contention over the way in which he was assassinated. Meanwhile, Arab states caught between Iran and Israel are scrambling—together with their US ally—to constrain the eruption of...