Israel’s assault on Gaza has in some ways proven to be a boon for Iran, furthering some of its strategic objectives and boosting its reputation in the region. In Nov. 2023, a report by the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy found that an average of 40% of respondents in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria said Iran’s actions have had a positive impact on the war. In Egypt and Syria, such sentiments were expressed by half of respondents.

Polling from the Arab Barometer echoes this trajectory. A Dec. 2023 report indicated that three weeks after the Oct. 7, 2023 Palestinian surprise attack on Israel, Iran’s supreme leader had approval ratings that matched or surpassed those of the Saudi crown prince and the Emirati president. While Tunisia is geographically...