Jan. 16, 2024

Inside story: Iranian ballistic missiles rock Iraqi Kurdistan

Iraq/Security
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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly fired around a dozen ballistic missiles and suicide drones at targets in Iraqi Kurdistan, killing at least four people and wounding several others. Notably, the fatalities include a prominent local businessman—triggering condemnation from Kurdish authorities.

In multiple statements, the IRGC has claimed that a base of Israel’s Mossad spy agency was destroyed in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, describing the attack as retaliation for the recent assassinations of commanders of the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’. Missiles were also fired at targets in northern Syria as retribution for the Jan. 3 bombings in the southern Iranian city of Kerman, claimed by the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP).

The IRGC’s reasoning behind targeting Syria instead of Afghanistan, where at least one of the Kerman bombers is said to have been recruited, is that members of ISKP allegedly receive training in Idlib and are then transferred to Afghanistan by the US. No evidence has been provided for this claim.

 

Blasts after dark

At 11:30 pm local time, residents in Erbil reported hearing multiple loud explosions. Shortly afterwards, the IRGC claimed responsibility for missile strikes against bases of anti-Iran armed groups and the Mossad.

“We heard eight or nine explosions and the windows kept shaking and we ran outside,” Zhelwan Ziad, a resident of Erbil, told Amwaj.media. “Everyone in the street was outside and shaken and did not know what was happening.”

The IRGC has in recent weeks been under mounting pressure to respond to the Dec. 25, 2023 killing of its most influential commander in Syria. The assassination of Seyed Radhi Mousavi in a suspected Israeli airstrike in Damascus has been described as a major escalation, and on par with the US killing of former Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020. The Islamic Republic has also been expected to respond to the twin suicide bombings targeting a procession in Kerman, the hometown of Soleimani, on the fourth anniversary of the general’s death.

While ISKP has claimed the bombings in Kerman, which killed over 90 people, the IRGC and powerful circles in Tehran have blamed the attack on Israel.

“We inform the heroic people of Iran…that in response to the recent terrorist atrocities of the enemies of Islamic Iran , the espionage bases and the congregations of the anti-Iran terrorist groups…were targeted by the ballistic missiles of the IRGC,” the Guard Corps announced in three statements. “The IRGC in response to the mischief of the Zionist regime in martyring the commanders of the IRGC and the Resistance Axis…targeted with ballistic missiles one of the espionage bases of the Zionist regime in the Kurdistan region of Iraq and we destroyed it.”

The IRGC did not say how many missiles were fired, or which specific locations had been hit. However, Telegram channels close to the elite force alleged that Shahed-136 attack drones were also used in the attack.

Of note, while sites near the nascent new US consulate in Erbil were hit, no American or Coalition facilities were targeted. In a statement, the US National Security Council said the Iranian missiles were “tracked,” and that “initial indications are that this was a reckless and imprecise set of strikes.”

 

Prominent Kurdish target

Iraqi Kurdish officials have said that at least three missiles hit the home of Peshraw Majeed Agha Dezaei, a well-known Kurdish businessman and property magnate with close ties to the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP).

Dezaei was chairman of the Falcon Investment Group and developer of Empire World, a 2.3B USD project in Erbil involving the construction of residential and commercial units in addition to restaurants and a luxury hotel. The complex is one among several other projects in the capital of the Kurdistan region that have been developed by Dezaei’s companies, and is frequented by expatriates as well as foreign diplomats. The prominent Kurdish businessman is also said to have spent considerable time in Dubai.

Dezaei died instantly along with a number of other family members. There are conflicting reports about whether his wife is among the fatalities. In one graphic video circulated on Kurdish social media, it is alleged that Dezaei’s son was injured and transported to the hospital. Amwaj.media could not independently confirm the authenticity of the clip.

In a statement issued shortly after the Iranian strikes, the Kurdistan Region Security Council said that four civilians had been killed and six others wounded. “The IRGC has said that this attack was against the Iranian opposition groups, but this is a baseless excuse and we flatly reject it,” the security body said, adding that the federal government in Baghdad and the international community should not be quiet in the face of the “violation” of Iraqi sovereignty.

IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency promptly circulated claims that Dezaei had “special connections” to Israelis, and that he was involved in the export of oil pumped in Iraqi Kurdistan to Israel. No evidence has been provided for the allegations.

Importantly, these same claims were previously made against KAR group CEO Baz Karim, a Kurdish oil tycoon whose residence just outside Erbil was among the targets of IRGC drone and missile strikes in Mar. 2022. Similar to Dezaei, Karim also has close ties to the KDP although he did not lose his life. The previous Iranian missile barrage is believed to have been triggered by a reported Feb. 2022 Israeli airstrike in western Iran, across the border from Iraqi Kurdistan, which saw an IRGC drone base come under fire. Weeks later, in early Mar. 2022, two IRGC colonels were killed in suspected Israeli aerial attacks in Syria.

In other words, it appears that the Kurdistan region has once again become an arena for the Iran-Israel shadow war in the region.

Against this backdrop, apart from the attack on Dezaei’s residence, unnamed Iraqi security sources on Jan. 15 claimed that one Iranian missile hit the home of a “senior Kurdish intelligence official” while a “Kurdish intelligence center” was also struck. But a senior Kurdish source who spoke anonymously denied knowledge of the latter to Amwaj.media, highlighting that “all casualties are civilians.”

 

Awkward timing

The IRGC attack comes at perhaps an unanticipated time for the Kurdish leadership in Iraq. As recently as Jan. 8, Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani visited the Iranian consulate in Erbil to offer his condolences for the terrorist attacks in Kerman. Almost every other top Kurdish official also condemned the ISKP bombings in Iran and thanked the Islamic Republic for supporting federal Iraq and the Kurdistan region during the 2014-17 war against the Islamic State group.

Furthermore, in a bid to address concerns expressed by Tehran, Iranian officials accompanied officials from Baghdad and Erbil in visits to abandoned bases of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan region. Iran had threatened attacks on such facilities unless the dissidents were disarmed and moved away from the Iran-Iraq border by Sept. 2023. Iraqi Kurdish authorities appear to have duly obliged.

But as in 2022, the latest IRGC attack on Erbil has little to do with the state of relations between Erbil and Tehran. Instead, it is likely rooted in the broader tension triggered by the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza, which has brought the region to the brink of a devastating wider confrontation. Iran-backed armed groups have since Oct. 2023 launched scores of attacks on US positions in federal Iraq and Iraqi Kurdistan. Frequent targets have included the air bases in Erbil and Harir some 60 km (44 miles) outside the regional capital.

Notably, Kurdish security forces were recently targeted in a rare drone strike on a Peshmerga base near the headquarters of the KDP. No one has claimed responsibility for the Dec. 30, 2023 airstrike in Pirmam, some 28 km (17.4 miles) northeast of Erbil. But the incident has triggered a strong backlash from the KDP. Telegram channels seen as close to the IRGC claimed that Mossad operatives were targeted and killed in the attack.

The repercussions of the Iranian missile attack on Erbil are not yet clear. Many experts see indications that it could be a dangerous escalation with potentially serious consequences for Iran and the region. But not all agree with this assessment.

“The attack is significant because it is the first time [since Oct. 2023] that Iran is involving itself directly in the wider tension in the region..and it really matters given the proximity to the US consulate, although there was no damage,” a seasoned observer based in the region with intimate knowledge of Iranian operations told Amwaj.media. “This could be a message of fire, or it could also be an indication that this whole round of wider tension is coming to an end. Iran has done its hit and it could be the end [of the tension].”

Reflecting on how Iran and its regional allies may view the bigger picture, the expert concluded, “I think the ‘Axis of Resistance’ is assured that the war is coming to an end, and that is why [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah has [recently] escalated his rhetoric and Iran saw the urge to have a [direct] touch [in the wider regional confrontation]. But it could also be that the Axis is reading the signals in the wrong way.”

Echoing this sentiment, a second veteran observer with extensive insights into both Iranian and Iraqi decision making told Amwaj.media, “Iran [feels it] should do something, but it doesn’t want escalation. So Kurdistan is the best target at the moment.”

Fazel Hawramy
Fazel Hawramy
Fazel Hawramy
Fazel Hawramy is an investigative journalist. He covered the war against the Islamic State group (IS) ... Full Bio
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