Following rising acrimony over Iran’s drone exports to Russia, Iranian and Ukrainian officials have in recent months gathered in Oman. Speaking on condition of anonymity, Iranian and regional sources have confirmed to Amwaj.media that at least one meeting has been held so far. The future of the dialogue is not assured, although informed sources indicate that there are strong and mutual motivations to make progress.

The backdrop is that western isolation of Russia over the Ukraine war has compelled President Vladimir Putin to increasingly turn to Iran for drones. The unexpected military cooperation has been a game-changer in the relationship between Moscow and Tehran, which has long been marred by mistrust that has deferred genuine strategic cooperation. In a stunning example of the current shift, the Islamic Republic may soon take delivery of Russian conventional weapons systems that would seriously complicate “all options on the table” by the US against Iran, including Su-35 fighter jets.  

But the expanding military cooperation with Russia is also having broader ripple effects which may turn the endeavor into a net liability for Iran. Already, Amwaj.media has learned, there are indications that progress in the deadlocked talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal could be tied to...