In Iran, hardliners such as former chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili previously never had any real shot at the presidency. In the 2013 polls, when more than 70% of the electorate turned out to vote moderate Hassan Rouhani into office by a landslide, barely 11% of voters cast ballots for Jalili. In 2021, under pressure from the political establishment, Jaili pulled out in favor of late president Ebrahim Raisi, with conservatives benefiting from internal consensus and a record-low voter turnout of some 48%.

But with Raisi suddenly out of the way, a major portion of the electorate deeply disillusioned, and with the Guardian Council’s systematic barring of all major pro-reform candidates, Iran’s hardliners last month...