When Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) recently marked the ninth anniversary of their establishment, most observers expected the force to hold its annual parade. Similar to his predecessors, Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani (2022-) was anticipated to attend the event, which was seen as likely to be the largest ever. But the display of military might, consistently held in past years, never materialized.

Shifting calculations

According to one senior PMU commander, “Frankly speaking…we can say that it [the parade] was canceled.” The commander charged that the force previously held “large parades” and took other measures to embarrass Mustafa Al-Kadhimi (2020-22) “in front of his foreign backers,” as a way to push back against the former prime minister’s occasional efforts to confront the PMU. With the main components of the force supporting the incumbent Sudani administration, they no longer appear to have the same motives to show off their might.

Confirming this dynamic, a top PMU Commission official told Amwaj.media that “the reasons why the parade was held in previous years are no longer there.” Speaking on condition of anonymity, he elaborated, “The PMU is no longer compelled to...