Iranian media is rife with speculation about who will run to fill the vacuum left by the May 19 death of Ebrahim Raisi. The country is set to hold early presidential elections on June 28. Among moderates, former parliament speaker Ali Larijani (2008-20)—a political ally of ex-president Hassan Rouhani (2013-21)—is a key figure being highlighted. Meanwhile, possible conservative contenders include incumbent Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a three-time presidential candidate, and hardline former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, who has unsuccessfully run for president twice.

The conservative-dominated Guardian Council has barred virtually all Reformist and moderate candidates from contesting general elections since 2020, contributing to record-low voter turnout. Against this backdrop, the focus is...