The story: The Iraqi Kurdish Counter-Terrorism Group (CTG) has been accused of involvement in the US assassination of top Iranian and Iraqi military commanders last year. The shocking allegation, made in a May 8 expose by Yahoo News, has prompted the Kurdish elite unit to swiftly deny “any involvement or awareness of our forces in such [an] act.”

The allegation: The Yahoo News article brings up a series of allegedly new dimensions to the Jan. 3, 2020 killing of Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani and Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) deputy chief Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis near Baghdad International Airport. With reference to the CTG, the report alleges that:

Iraqi Kurdish local operatives “played a key role in the killing” of Soleimani and Muhandis.
CTG operatives had “already started infiltrating” Baghdad International Airport as undercover staff when US special forces entered the Iraqi capital in late December 2019.
A CTG operative on the tarmac guided the plane that carried Soleimani while other Kurdish agents positively identified the Iranian commander upon his arrival at Baghdad airport from Damascus, Syria.
A CTG member “helped” US snipers who were positioned to target Soleimani’s motorcade in case he survived the US drone strike by making “the wind call from down range.”
Citing two unnamed US officials, the Yahoo News article charges that a “Kurdish operative disguised as an Iraqi police officer walked up to the wreckage of Soleimani’s vehicle, snapped photographs and quickly obtained a tissue sample for DNA confirmation before walking away and vanishing into the night.”

Between the lines: The allegation that the CTG had a close hand in the assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis is certain to raise eyebrows among Iraq watchers.

First and foremost, blame for the killing—chiefly formulated by armed groups close to Iran—has so far been mainly aimed at the Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS).

Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, who became prime minister in May 2020—five months after the assassination of Soleimani and Muhandis—was appointed head of the Baghdad-based INIS in June 2016.
Kadhimi has long been portrayed as close to the US, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). As Amwaj.media has previously reported, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq leader Qais Al-Khazali has specifically alleged Emirati infiltration of the INIS.
Armed groups have gone as far as threatening to “cut off” Kadhimi’s “ears” in response to his efforts to rein in them.

The alleged CTG involvement in the US assassination is also curious since the elite force’s parent political party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), broadly enjoys close ties with the Islamic Republic.

CTG co-founders include Lahur Sheikh Jangi Talabany and his cousin and fellow PUK Co-President Bafel Talabani. The elder son of late PUK leader ‘Mam’ Jalal Talabani, Bafel reportedly received military training from British Special Forces and France's Foreign Legion before setting up the elite unit in 2004.

The CTG’s long-time operational commander is Talabany’s brother, Polad, having been recruited by Bafel. However, Talabany is believed by observers to maintain strong influence over both CTG and the PUK’s Zanyari intelligence agency, the counterpart of the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s (KDP) Parastin agency.
It is also important that much of the intra-elite competition in the Kurdistan region is not merely between political parties or families but also individuals and agencies.
Tension between Talabany and the KDP has been apparent on multiple occasions, as Amwaj.media has previously reported. In 2016, the PUK co-president explicitly stated, “At times, we have had a better working relationship with Baghdad than we have with our counterparts in Erbil.”
Talabany has also stated, “We, as a Zanyari agency, have a good relation with more than 30 countries, exchanging information with their intelligence services, but we do not cooperate and share information with the KDP’s Parastin agency."
The CTG has long enjoyed close collaboration with the US, but reportedly “left without help from America, the unit turned to the UAE for the purchase of Guardian armored vehicles, rather than the American-made Humvees.
The CTG on May 9 sent a statement to the KDP-linked media outlet Rudaw. It strongly denied “any involvement or awareness of our forces in such act,” and noted that Soleimani “was a close friend of the late Mam Jalal [Talabani], and counter-terrorism units once fought on the frontlines against terrorism where Qasem Soleimani was also fighting.”

According to Rudaw, the CTG statement claimed ambiguity about whether it really is the Kurdish unit named in the article, which the report’s co-author confirmed.

The future: The Iranian and Iraqi governments are still conducting investigations into the assassination, which claimed the lives of senior security officials from both countries. The sudden surfacing of a claim of not just Kurdish involvement, but the collaboration of a PUK-aligned force—a party generally seen as close to Tehran—is explosive. If the allegation is accurate, the aftermath could be the opening of a Pandora’s box.

In this vein, the timing of the alleged leak is notable. The Iranian and Iraqi spy services by now likely already have a somewhat clear idea of who had a hand in the events that transpired on Jan. 3, 2020. Given that Baghdad has over the past year turned into a venue for regional dialogue, it may be useful to consider the possible beneficiaries of renewed geopolitical tensions playing out on Iraqi soil.

Indeed, neither Iran nor the US have much to gain from revisiting the Soleimani assassination at this time, particularly considering the ongoing indirect US-Iran talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal. Moreover, it ought to be noted that Iran is set to hold presidential elections in June while Iraq is set for parliamentary polls in October. The impacts of the associated politics should not be underestimated.

In this vein, and as Iraq analyst Sajad Jiyad has pointed out, if the allegation of US-Kurdish collusion in the assassination is true, it will likely “give groups seeking revenge more anti-government material and keep pressure up to force [the] US out.”