Iraq is preparing to hold fresh provincial elections later this year, for the first time in more than a decade. The Dec. 18 vote will help draw a new political map and fill the void left by the dissolution of local councils following the mass opposition protests in 2019. Although the upcoming elections could well be postponed, oil-rich and multi-ethnic Kirkuk is in the spotlight.

The possibility that Kurds and Turkmen may lose more power and influence to Arabs in the polls could increase tensions in the strategic city. Already, a dispute over whether a Kurdish party or the Iraqi security forces should control a building has sparked violent clashes in recent days. Adding further complexities, competing external actors including Iran and Turkey seek to enhance the position of their allies in Kirkuk.

Kurdish politics in tatters

The current Kurdish political scene in Iraq is fragmented. Ahead of the upcoming elections in Kirkuk, the Erbil-based Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) has...