In March this year, Nineveh Governor Abdul Kader Al-Dakhil signed a contract with Italian engineering company SGI to initiate a long-stalled project on the expansion of provincial capital Mosul. The proposed project would expand the northern Iraqi city by 7 km (4.5 miles) in all directions, and includes the development of 160,000 dunums (1,600 hectares) of land earmarked for investment in industrial, agriculture, housing, and tourism projects.

With a population of approximately 4M, Nineveh Governorate is one of the most religiously and ethnically diverse regions of Iraq. A majority of its Arab, Turkmen, and Kurdish residents are Sunni Muslims, with most of them residing in Mosul. The city and the governorate’s districts are also home to significant populations of Syriac Christians, a majority of Iraq’s Shabak communities, and Yazidis.

Supporters of the expansion project have claimed that its real estate initiatives, such as the Al-Ghazlani project, will help alleviate soaring housing prices and provide jobs in the provincial capital. Alongside its promised 28,000 housing units, the project is touted to include a university, hospital, and schools. However, the details of the broader expansion project have provoked discontent among religious and ethnic minority communities in the governorate.

At issue are claims that the accompanying proposed expansion of Mosul’s administrative boundaries into the Nineveh plains would upset the delicate demographic balance in the governorates. While Governor Dakhil has defended the project against such assertions, local activists and prominent politicians continue to signal their opposition to the scheme. Ultimately, the settling of these disputes will likely determine the ongoing viability of the expansion project as it develops.

Expanding Mosul

Plans for an expansion of Mosul were first put forward in 2000, under former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein (1979-2003). However, the project quickly encountered delays due to disputes between minority groups in the Nineveh plains and Mosul’s civic administration. Political conflicts and persistent instability resulting from years of war—most recently the 2014-17 confrontation with the Islamic State group (IS) in the governorate—further contributed to the postponement of the initiative.

In a press conference announcing the scheme, Dakhil described it as an unparalleled opportunity for Nineveh and presented the governorate’s governing council with 20 projects that would comprise the development campaign. Additionally, Mosul’s administration plans to construct a small sports city to replace the crumbling Al-Idara Al-Mahalia Stadium.

The Nineveh governor elaborated that “following the commencement of the Al-Ghazlani residential city project and initiation of the expansion project for Mosul’s primary design, our upcoming focus will be on the Mosul Old City regeneration project.” Dakhil further noted that the residential project is one of several large residential projects under development in Iraq.

Baghdad claims new residential complexes such as Al-Ghazlani will help alleviate the country’s ongoing housing crisis, and ease skyrocketing real estate prices across the country. However, observers have claimed that the property boom accompanying such large-scale residential projects often hide rampant corruption and money laundering.

Shabak opposition

Prominent political figures from the Shabak communities have charged that the Mosul expansion scheme could be used as a potential catalyst for demographic changes in the governorate. In a Mar. 23 video posted on social media, former Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) commander and Shabak MP Waad Qado voiced his opposition against the endeavor, emphasizing the need to reach consensus and ensure an equitable solution.

Qado charged that such major decisions cannot be made unilaterally by the governor, and proposed convening a conference with representatives of each community to address complaints. Of note, Qado—also known as Abu Jaafar Al-Shabaki—was sanctioned by the US in 2019 over alleged human rights abuses said to have been carried out when he was a PMU commander. 

In his missive, Qado further stated that the Future of Nineveh Alliance—a coalition of Shiite parties close to the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework—would gather signatures and raise the issue with the governorate council. Notably, he added that the coalition “will vote against the inclusion of the Nineveh plains in this expansion,” and that if a vote is not held—or blocked by the governor—he would mobilize his community to protest “in the streets.”

Separately, in an interview with Al-Alam Al-Jadid, former MP and Nineveh provincial council member Muhammad Al-Shabaki argued that the project contravenes Article 23 of the Iraqi Constitution. The article explicitly prohibits any alterations to the demographic makeup of regions and “ownership of property for the purposes of demographic change.” Speaking to Amwaj.media, Shabaki explained his opposition to the project, alleging that it “extends beyond the expansion of Mosul city and encompasses changes to its basic social makeup.”

The former MP also insisted that “Dakhil should have waited before making the announcement.” Similar to Qado, Shabaki charged that consequential decisions such as the one made by the governor are in fact the prerogative of the provincial council. At the same time, he said that “the governorate council is still in its infancy and requires time to establish itself. Nineveh Governorate is undergoing a transitional phase as it continues to recover from recent conflicts.”

Referencing Nineveh’s centrality in Iraq’s struggle against IS, Shabaki told Amwaj.media, “The people of the Nineveh plains, Tal Afar, and Sinjar are still recovering from their experience with Daesh [IS]. Many individuals have yet to return to their homes and communities, and the security and social conditions remain unstable.”

The governorate council member conceded that “while updating the primary design of Mosul City is necessary to enhance service delivery and implement projects within its administrative boundaries, comprehensive studies and discussions within the Nineveh Governorate council are essential to achieve solutions acceptable to all parties”—further remarking that “there is a need for concerted efforts to develop underutilized lands within Mosul city.”

Inflamed rhetoric

Not all minority voices have been dissenting. Speaking to Amwaj.media, the Nineveh Governorate council member representing the Yazidi quota, Idan Sheikh Kalo, emphasized that the increasing population of the provincial capital necessitates the project. In his view, "The serious need for expansion in Mosul has been evident for over a decade, and the project will enhance service provision for residents living on the outskirts of Mosul.”

Having said that, Sheikh Kalo also highlighted that he advocates for “the preservation of minority communities and their unique regions without causing demographic shifts.” He proposed that as the plan is realized, "It should be directed towards the south and west of Mosul" rather than towards areas where largely minority populations reside.

According to academic and journalist Saad Salloum, the war of words over the expansion project is in danger of inflaming sectarian tension in the governorate. Salloum told Amwaj.media that “the escalating hate speech surrounding the dispute carries serious repercussions.” Cautioning that the use of terms like "demographic change" could fuel future conflict, he explained that such loaded terminology is often interpreted as “a veiled threat of ethnic cleansing."

The scholar further emphasized that “successful development projects in areas recovering from conflict require comprehensive consultations with a broad range of local residents.” This collaborative approach, he argued, “Is essential to avoid disrupting social harmony.” Conversely, neglecting such consultations, he underscored, "Could lead to significant problems down the line." Finding a solution to the dispute, Salloum stressed, demands “striking a balance between accommodating population growth, and fostering the building of trust between Nineveh Governorate’s communities.”