As the US withdraws from Afghanistan, regional actors are maneuvering amid the return of Taliban dominance in Kabul. 20 years after the US-led invasion, the influence game has changed—with different actors playing new roles. The last time the Taliban was in power, between 1996 and 2001, its rule was recognized by only three countries: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Foreign influence in Afghanistan is far more complex today.

Reviewing the current state of play and considering what may come next, five important trends can be discerned with reference to Iranian and Arab influence in Afghanistan...