Almost three months after Operation ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’, there is no evidence that demonstrates direct Iranian involvement in the Palestinian surprise attack on Israel last autumn. But Hamas’s proven capacity for organized violence has much to do with Tehran’s support over the years. Against this backdrop, the unprecedented land, air, and sea attack on Israeli border communities near Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023 was a major boost to Iran’s policy goals of avoiding direct confrontation with Israel while supporting armed Arab non-state actors fighting Israel.

How these new dynamics may shape future relations between Hamas and the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ greatly depends on the outcome of the Gaza war—and the credentials it may bestow upon the...