Over the last few weeks, various reports have emerged on Iran’s increased crude oil sales. The most recent report by monitoring service TankerTrackers indicates that Aug. 2023 saw the highest volume of Iranian exports since 2018, when the Donald Trump administration unilaterally left the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and reimposed all sanctions.

Last year, Iran’s revenues from the export of crude oil and condensate reached 42.6B USD, compared to 25.5B in 2021, 7.9B in 2020, and 19.4B in 2019. The peak of export performance in recent years was in 2018, with 60.5B USD in revenues.

A continuation of the Aug. 2023 export level of 2.2M barrels per day (bpd) through the end of this year would put Iran back at a respectable level of production and exports, though it would...