While Iran intentionally maintains ambiguity about its assets held abroad, it is valid to argue that tens of billions of US dollars are blocked in foreign bank accounts, awaiting US licenses to be released. Various stakeholders around the world had anticipated that the Joe Biden administration would issue the needed approvals so that some of the current pressures on the Iranian economy could be eased. However, the licenses have not been forthcoming.

Adopting a forward-looking approach, this article will outline and assess three distinct scenarios with regard to Iran’s access to its hard currency reserves. It will also look at how each scenario may affect key economic developments in the country over the next 12 months...