On March 17, just ahead of the Iranian New Year, President Hassan Rouhani argued at a press conference that Iran is on the “eve of victory in the economic war” and predicted the lifting of US sanctions within the next twelve months. According to him, the Joe Biden administration has recognized former president Donald Trump’s policy towards Iran as a mistake and is ready to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Trump in 2018 unilaterally left the accord, which the US signed in 2015.

However, Rouhani’s statements are likely reflecting Tehran’s expectations rather than reality. Indeed, the situation is much more complicated and it gives little hope to Tehran for immediate significant sanctions relief...