The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company (PMC), made headlines around the world in June when it rebelled against Moscow. Led by company chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, the short-lived revolt saw Wagner temporarily  seize control of Rostov-on-Don and the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District. These developments drew notable attention in Iran, which has grown significantly closer to Russia since the eruption of the Ukraine war in Feb. 2022.

Unlike national militaries, PMCs are private organizations providing combat or security services for financial profit. Their roles can span from protection and training to logistics, intelligence gathering, and combat operations. They are often employed by governments, corporations, or individuals.

Yet, unlike Russia and some regional states, Iran neither has domestic PMCs nor hires foreign security contractors. The question, therefore, is what impact—if any—that Wagner’s rebellion might have had on...