Inside story: After deal with Saudi Arabia, top Iranian security official ‘due in UAE’

Update: The SNSC's media affiliate at noon local time on Mar. 15 confirmed that Shamkhani will visit the UAE on Mar. 16 upon the invitation of his Emirati counterpart.

The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) is slated to visit the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Amwaj.media has learned. The senior Iranian security official will be hosted by his Emirati counterpart, National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan (TbZ). Shamkhani is also expected to meet with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ).

The apparent stepping up of Emirati-Iranian engagement follows Shamkhani’s recent trip to China, where he led talks with Saudi Arabia that resulted in a Mar. 10 announcement that embassies will be reopened within two months. The latter agreement followed multiple rounds of talks in Iraq and Oman between Iranian and Saudi officials in 2021-22.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an informed Arab source asserted, “There was a plan [for Shamkhani] to travel to the UAE…it was supposed to take place two weeks ago, but it was delayed due to the China deal.” The exact date of the upcoming trip is unclear. However, sources in the region have told Amwaj.media that the apparent engagement comes in the wake of efforts by regional interlocutors to advance dialogue.

Without revealing the identity of the interlocutors, the informed Arab source stated, “Both sides were asked to organize this to push the regional cooperation forward.” He elaborated, “There are also talks about the [2015 Iran] nuclear deal and solutions for sanctions.” Against this backdrop, the focus of Shamkhani’s visit is expected to be on investment and trade, in addition to security issues.

TbZ leads Emirati outreach

Ties between Iran and the UAE were disrupted in 2016, when Saudi Arabia cut relations with Iran following the ransacking of its diplomatic facilities by Iranian protesters. The demonstrators were outraged by Riyadh’s execution of dissident Saudi Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr Al-Nimr. In solidarity with the Kingdom, the UAE downgraded relations with the Islamic Republic to the level of chargé d’affaires.

When former US president Donald Trump (2017-21) in May 2018 withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, bilateral ties further frayed. US sanctions hit commerce, with political relations between Abu Dhabi and Tehran also deteriorating. However, mysterious explosions on four tankers off the coast of Fujairah in May 2019 seemingly reignited Iran-UAE engagement. Five months after the blasts, a senior delegation led by TbZ visited Tehran for talks with Shamkhani. Subsequently, an Iranian MP announced the unfreezing of 700M USD of Iranian assets blocked due to US sanctions.

Engagement between Iran and the UAE has been stepped up since US President Joe Biden took office in Jan. 2021. Bilateral trade is reported to have increased, with TbZ paying another rare visit to Tehran in Dec. 2021. In parallel, Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan (AbZ) has been engaging with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

During his most recent visit to Iran, TbZ was hosted by Shamkhani and met with President Ebrahim Raisi. The Emirati national security advisor said his talks in Iran were as a “turning point” in bilateral relations. Raisi welcomed TbZ’s comments and emphasized that maintaining good ties with countries in the region was a “priority” for his government. On his part, Shamkhani said he hoped that TbZ’s visit would signal “the beginning of a new era” in bilateral relations.

Preparation for landmark state visit?

TbZ informally extended an invitation for Raisi to visit the UAE during his most recent trip to Tehran. Subsequently, Iranian state media in Jan. 2022 reported that Raisi was set to attend the Dubai Expo 2020 in early Feb. 2022. However, the trip never took place. At the time, UAE was being hit by unprecedented drone and missile attacks launched by the Iran-backed Ansarullah movement in Yemen, better known as the Houthis. Separately, a shadowy group in Iraq claimed responsibility for an unconfirmed drone attack on the UAE.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior Iranian official told Amwaj.media at the time, “A visit at the level of heads of state is a function of the level of political and diplomatic relations between the two countries…Iran and the Emirates have some distance to go until reaching that point.” Informed sources in Tehran also asserted that no Iranian state visit would be on the agenda in the absence of an “official invitation.” One senior source added that “for a state visit to occur, there must also first be an elevation of ties to the ambassador level.”

When Raisi took office in Aug. 2021, he promised to focus on improving relations with neighboring states. Among the Gulf Arab states, he has visited Oman and Qatar. But the insistence on the full restoration of relations prior to any state visit was evident in the Iranian president’s absence at the funeral of former UAE president Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan in May 2022. Raisi instead sent Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, who was seen with MbZ.

Given that the UAE reinstated its ambassador to Iran last September, one key obstacle to an elevation of bilateral political engagement appears to have been overcome. Moreover, further impetus for progress has been provided by Iran and Saudi Arabia’s decision to resume diplomatic relations. Against this backdrop, a state visit could finally be in the making—indicating a major shift.

Trade and security

While trade suffered following Trump’s reimposition of US sanctions, the UAE has resumed its role as a key trading partner for Iran. In the Iranian year which ended in Mar. 2021, it was Iran’s third export destination and second supplier.

At the same time, Abu Dhabi and Tehran have major differences over the UAE’s increasingly close relations with Israel. Of note, the 2020 Abraham Accords saw Israel normalize ties with the UAE. The Houthi aerial attacks last year served to further step up Emirati security collaboration with Tel Aviv.

Yet, important Iranian political figures and outlets—including the media affiliate of Shamkhani’s home institution—have issued thinly veiled warnings to the UAE not to engage too closely with Israeli and US efforts to promote integrated air defenses for Gulf Arab states. Nour News, the SNSC’s media affiliate warned in July 2022, “The creation of an integrated [air] defense network in the region by the US with the participation, guidance and hidden management of the evil Zionist regime is a threatening act. If the implementation of such plans endangers the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran in any way, the closest and most accessible targets will definitely face an initial decisive response.”

Ultimately, the UAE’s parallel pursuit of closer relations with both Iran and Israel highlight its efforts to help establish a new regional security framework. For such an endeavor to succeed, it appears that the interests and red lines of all sides must be considered.