Deep Dive: Iran inks security accord with Iraq as regional diplomacy revved up

The story: The secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has capped off a busy month of dialogue with Arab states with the signing of a security agreement in Baghdad. The accord aims to address concerns about Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in northern Iraq.

This comes as Ali Shamkhani's recent talks in China to restore relations with Saudi Arabia and visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have raised questions about the foreign ministry’s role in Iran’s diplomacy. While Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has publicly insisted that all state institutions are on the same page, few are convinced.

The coverage: Shamkhani met with high-ranking officials in Iraq on Mar. 19, signing the security agreement with his Iraqi counterpart Qasim Al-Araji.

• Nour News, the media affiliate of the SNSC, said the memorandum of understanding had been "months in the making" and "will have a decisive effect on reducing and managing unwanted security challenges between the two countries."
  
  
• Nour News added that the security challenges are "rooted" in the alleged activities of opposition groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Islamic Republic has long accused the exiled Iranian Kurdish factions of "cooperating and coordinating" with Israel against Iran.
  
  
• The agreement was notably signed in the presence of Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani.

Shamkhani separately discussed the alleged activities of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups with the Iraqi premier, who took the opportunity to welcome the recent Iranian-Saudi détente.

• Sudani vowed not to allow Iraq to be used "as a launch pad for attacks on neighboring countries." He added that Iraq will not become "a platform for armed groups" or "a target for attacks."
  
  
• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) occasionally shells locations in Iraqi Kurdistan linked to groups that Tehran considers as "terrorists." Baghdad categorically condemns the attacks.
  
  
• Referring to the Iranian Kurdish factions based in Iraq, Shamkhani stated that "the mischief of mercenary and armed counterrevolutionary groups must immediately end." He further emphasized that the interests of Tehran and Baghdad "must not be sacrificed for the mischief of America and its terrorist mercenaries."

Shamkhani's trip to Baghdad followed his Mar. 16 trip to the UAE, where he held talks with top officials including his Emirati counterpart Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan as well as President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

• Shamkhani, who is one of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's two personal representatives to the SNSC, led a high-level delegation to the UAE that included Central Bank of Iran (CBI) chief Mohammad Reza Farzin.
  
  
• Shamkhani's UAE visit came on the heels of five days of secret talks with Saudi Arabia in China which resulted in a Mar. 10 announcement that the regional rivals had agreed to resume diplomatic ties after more than seven years.

The CBI stated on Mar. 19 that the rapprochement with Riyadh and talks in Abu Dhabi had boosted the availability of Emirati dirhams in Iran's foreign exchange market.

• The Iranian central bank said 630M AED (171.5M USD) had on Mar. 18 been traded in its recently-established currency exchange center.
  
  
• The CBI promised a "bright outlook" for the foreign exchange market once new financial channels and credit lines with Arab states are established. A statement issued by the central bank also mentioned the possibility of Arab investment in Iran.

Shamkhani's recent diplomatic achievements have raised questions in Iran about the role of the foreign ministry, leading some outlets to ask who is in charge of foreign policy.

• In an apparent attempt to put speculations to rest, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Mar. 17 tweeted that Shamkhani is "accompanied by the foreign ministry's representative on his trips.”
  
  
• The Iranian chief diplomat insisted that "everything" takes place under President Ebrahim Raisi's watch and within the Islamic Republic's established policy framework.
  
  
• Amir-Abdollahian wrote twice in his tweet that "there is coordination" among entities involved in foreign policy. This led one Reformist outlet to suggest that the foreign minister "got stressed writing a four-line tweet."

The context/analysis: The Islamic Republic regularly accuses Iranian Kurdish groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan of “terrorist” activities and collaboration with Israel. The main factions include the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI), Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PJAK), Komala, and the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK).

• Iran accused exiled opposition groups of fanning unrest after protests erupted in Sept. 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Iranian Kurdish woman who died in the custody of the morality police. On Sept. 24, the IRGC started shelling locations linked to groups based across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan.
  
  
• The IRGC has in past years also used ballistic missiles and drones to target sites in Iraqi Kurdistan allegedly linked to Israeli operatives.
  
  
• Following an aerial attack on a military workshop in the central Iranian city of Isfahan on Jan. 28, Tehran accused Iranian Kurdish groups based in Iraq of smuggling small drones across the border and assembling them in Iran.

The agreement signed in Baghdad was months in the making, and is believed to be closely linked to Iranian and Iraqi understandings with Ankara related to border security. Against this backdrop, Sudani will reportedly travel to Turkey on Mar. 21.

• In a move seemingly geared to assuage Iranian concerns, Iraq reportedly stationed 6,000 additional forces along its frontiers with Iran and Turkey earlier this year.
  
  
• Turkey, like Iran, has targeted Kurdish opposition groups based in Iraq. Last year, Ankara and Tehran carried out back-to-back attacks against such factions.

There is also a Saudi dimension to the recent undertakings on border security in Iraq.

• Last month, Iraq and Saudi Arabia signed a border security agreement for the first time since 1983.

The future: Tehran has repeatedly called on Baghdad and Erbil to disarm Iranian Kurdish groups and relocate them to refugee camps, away from the border.

• The details of the agreement signed in Baghdad are unclear, but Iran will be hoping that it will address its security concerns vis-à-vis opposition groups in Iraq.

Over the past several months, Iran has normalized relations with Kuwait and the UAE. Tehran is now additionally in the process of restoring diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, with an eye toward enhancing ties with Bahrain, Jordan, and Egypt.

• With its economy under heavy pressure and the talks on restoring the 2015 nuclear deal stalled for months, Iran is likely hoping to offset the impact of western sanctions by enhancing diplomatic and trade ties with its neighbors.