The story: Clashes between protesters and riot police in Baghdad have left at least two people dead and more than 100 injured. Demonstrations have swept several Iraqi cities over a renewed wave of targeted killings of journalists and political activists. Many Iraqis believe the assassinations have been carried out by armed groups backed by neighboring Iran.

The coverage: The leftist Al-Mada daily has reported that the protests on May 25 had been in the works since the May 9 killing of Ihab Al-Wazni, a prominent activist close to the secular-nationalist ‘Civilized Alliance’ (Tamadon). The rallies are being staged to demand that officials who may have been behind the killings be identified and brought to justice, and that the parliamentary elections set for October be cancelled. As protests took place across Iraq, hashtags like “Who killed me” in Arabic trended on Twitter throughout the day.

Demonstrators also turned out in the southern governorates of Basra and Maysan on May 25, while protesters blocked vital bridges in Nasiriyah. But it was Tahrir Square in Baghdad that quickly became the center of the anti-government protests. Local news website Baghdad 24 on the same day reported that people gathered in the square amid heavy security, among them protesters from southern governorates including Dhi Qar and Karbala.

In the late afternoon, the Shafaq news agency reported that one person had been killed and dozens of protesters injured at Tahrir Square, where security forces fired tear gas and live rounds. Activist Dhia Al-Hindi told the Rudaw news channel that two demonstrators had been killed.

Security forces took control of Tahrir Square after dispersing demonstrators by force, the Iraqi National News Agency (NINA) reported on May 25, while the independent Iraqi Observatory for Human Rights said it holds the Iraqi government responsible for the deaths and injuries. "Iraqi forces used live bullets and tear gas against peaceful demonstrators," it said.

Late on May 25, Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi promised that his government would open “a transparent investigation into what happened at Tahrir Square,” in order to “uncover the circumstances.” In a message on his Twitter account, he wrote, “We supported the freedom to hold peaceful protests in Iraq, and we issued strict orders for the protection of demonstrations, forbidding the use of live bullets for any reason” by the security forces.

On May 26, Qasim Muslih, a senior commander of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), was reportedly detained by security forces in connection with violence against installations which host foreign forces. Contradictory reports have subsequently emerged about his whereabouts, including his possible release.

The context/analysis: According to the Independent High Commission for Human Rights of Iraq, there have been 81 attempted assassinations of activists since anti-government protests began in October 2019, resulting in 34 murders. The most recent protests were triggered by the May 9 killing of activist Wazni in Karbala governorate by unknown gunmen. Of note, protests have also rocked the holy shrine cities of Karbala and Najaf

London-based newspaper Al Araby Al Jadeed on May 12 charged that the protests in Iraq are also rooted beyond domestic issues. Indeed, Wazni was a well-known critic of Iranian influence over Iraq’s domestic politics.

Prime Minister Kadhimi has notably in past months been brokering talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which for years have waged a proxy war in Iraq. The fight to bring those behind the killings to justice also shines a light on what many believe is collusion between Tehran and elements of Iraq’s security and intelligence agencies.

But describing the latest demonstrations as part of an anti-Iran movement would likely be an exaggeration. Iraqis are exasperated by endemic problems such as corruption, poverty, and rampant unemployment, especially among the young. In 2020, the estimated unemployment rate for under-30s in Iraq was more than 25%, aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The wave of demonstrations in 2019, which some analysts have called the “second wave of the Arab Spring,” were mostly leaderless and spontaneous. But protesters now see themselves as part of a nascent political movement known as the "October Revolution," named after the month of the first protests back in 2019.

The future: Iraq is likely to face a summer of discontent and violence, especially after the deadly crackdown on protesters in Baghdad on May 25. If Kadhimi’s government does not come up with serious concessions, the so-called “October forces” could become more structured and assertive in the next few months. This could lead to a significant swelling of a boycott movement ahead of Iraq’s October parliamentary polls.

Kadhimi could emerge weakened by these events. Indeed, one of the hashtags that have gained traction on Twitter since late on May 25 refers to the prime minister as a "murderer" and holds him responsible for the violence in the Iraqi capital’s Tahrir Square.