The story: A number of polls in Iran have predicted a tight three-way competition in the presidential race. Most surveys predict that conservative Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf will likely win the most ballots, but not the majority necessary to secure victory in the first round of voting. Reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian and hardline former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili are neck-and-neck. In terms of turnout, some polls predict a slight bump compared to the record-low voter participation of 48.8% in the 2021 elections.

Given that hardliners appear to benefit from low turnout, some observers have accused dissidents who urge a boycott of effectively...