Mar. 22, 2022

Will Houthi negotiators show up in Riyadh?

Peninsula/Diplomacy

The story: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) reportedly wants Yemeni parties, including the Iran-backed Ansarullah movement—better known as the Houthis—to gather in Riyadh for “consultations.” The aim is to rally support for a UN-led peace initiative. Yemen’s President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi has reportedly agreed to the talks. However, Houthi politburo chief Mohammed Ali Al-Houthi has rejected a mediation role for Riyadh, requesting neutral ground as the seventh anniversary of the Saudi-led war is coming up. 

The coverage: The London-based Asharq Al-Awsat reported on Mar. 16 that “the secretariat of the GCC will send invitations to all Yemeni parties within the next 24 hours.”

  • The Saudi-owned outlet relayed that “Yemeni-Yemeni consultations” will take place from Mar. 29 through Apr. 7, and will “include all Yemeni parties, including the Houthis.” An anonymous Gulf official cited in the report underscored that the talks will be “a continuation of [previous] GCC efforts to bring Yemen to safety.”
  • GCC Secretary-General Nayef Falah Mubarak Al-Hajraf will invite a Houthi delegation to Riyadh as “his guests with security guarantees,” if the Yemeni movement agrees to show up.

However, the Houthis have rejected the offer, stating that the GCC’s invitation “for dialogue is actually an invitation by Riyadh, and Riyadh is a party to the war—not a mediator.”

  • The Houthi-controlled Yemen News Agency (SABA) countered the GCC’s proposal by suggesting a neutral site for the intra-Yemeni consultations, saying, “We welcome dialogue with the [Saudi-led] coalition countries in any neutral country that is not participating in aggression against Yemen.”
  • Prominent Emirati academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla posited that the consultations are geared to “achieve Yemeni reconciliation…nobody cares more about ending the war and nobody will contribute more towards Yemen’s post-war reconstruction than the Gulf Arab states.”

Prior to the reports of a possible Yemeni summit hosted by the GCC, the Jeddah-based Okaz daily reported that the European Union had labeled the Houthi movement as a terrorist organization and placed it on a “blacklist.”

  • Under the headline “Legitimacy: Europe’s designation of the Houthis supports peace,” Okaz suggested that the Houthis have lost the “moral and ethical battle,” charging that this has “led to rejection [of the Houthis] locally, regionally, and internationally.”

The context/analysis: In the absence of peace talks, the war in Yemen between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition has escalated in recent months. This comes as the UN conference to alleviate the humanitarian crisis caused by the fighting fell short of the fundraising goal of 4.27B USD, only garnering 1.3B USD.

  • As Amwaj.media has previously reported, the Houthis have this year launched several rounds of missile and drone strikes on targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
  • In January, the Houthis seized a UAE-flagged shipping vessel that allegedly carried military equipment. The Saudi-led Coalition has claimed that the vessel only carried medical supplies.
  • Most Emirati troops left Yemen in 2019 after Abu Dhabi announced a “strategic redeployment” of its forces. The UAE has since relied on local allies to exert influence. Against this backdrop, Houthi attacks on the UAE followed Houthi setbacks on the battlefield against Saudi- and Emirati-backed forces.

Some analysts contend that the GCC support for a UN-led peace process is a result of the reconciliation talks in Iraq between Iran and Saudi Arabia held over the past year. The latter negotiations have been temporarily suspended for months pending the formation of the next Iraqi government.

  • While the Houthis have received support from Iran in the past, it remains unclear how much influence Tehran wields over the Yemeni group’s decision making.

The future: It does not appear likely that intra-Yemeni consultations will take place in Riyadh.

  • The Houthis have asserted that any peace negotiations must take place on neutral ground. Oman or Kuwait could host such consultations. The two GCC states have previously already offered to mediate between the warring sides.
  • With the world’s eyes on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Yemeni peace talks will likely receive little coverage. However, this could prove beneficial for the Coalition and the Houthis, as it may reduce pressure on both sides to make a breakthrough.
  • A continuation of the war in Yemen will likely see the Houthis targeting more urban centers in Saudi Arabia and the UAE alike.
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