The story: Hardline media in Iran are ramping up their targeting of prominent Sunni cleric Abdolhamid Esmailzehi, popularly known as Molavi Abdolhamid, over his criticism of the alleged mistreatment of prisoners and protesters.

The sniping follows claims that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has demanded that Esmailzehibe discredited rather than detained for speaking out.

The coverage: The influential Sunni cleric took to Twitter on Dec. 27 to criticize Iran's ruling establishment for its alleged use of "murder, execution, rape and severe torture" to deal with protesters and dissidents.

Esmailzehi said it was not befitting of a country "headed by ulama [Islamic scholars]" that calls itself an "Islamic Republic" to resort to such measures.

The criticism came days after jailed activist Narges Mohammadi in a letter from prison detailed physical and sexual abuse that female detainees arrested during the ongoing anti-establishment protests have allegedly been subjected to.

Iran's human rights chief Kazem Gharibabadi has rejected Mohammadi's claims.

Esmailzehi's explicit criticism of the authorities has not gone down well with state-backed media.

Fars News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on Dec. 28 called on Iran's judiciary to prosecute the cleric.

The newspaper Iran on Dec. 25 accused the top Sunni cleric of alignment with the "hostile media" of the west as well as outlets reportedly funded by Saudi Arabia.

The government-run Iran daily implicitly suggested Esmailzehi's removal as Friday prayer leader of the Sunni community in Zahedan, the capital of Sistan-Baluchestan Province. Of note, the southeastern frontier province is mostly home to Iran’s Baluch ethnic minority.

The context/analysis: Esmailzehi is widely seen as the spiritual leader of Iranian Sunni Muslims, who make up about 8-10% of the country’s population of 85M. In the political arena, his influence has meant that presidential hopefuls have consistently sought the cleric’s support ahead of elections to secure the Sunni vote.

In the 2017 presidential polls, Esmailzehi endorsed moderate Hassan Rouhani (2013-21), helping him win a second term in office.
Four years later, Esmailzehi threw his support behind incumbent conservative President Ebrahim Raisi. The 2021 elections notably saw record-low voter turnout on the back of the Guardian Council's rejection of almost all pro-reform candidates.

Esmailzehi's influence has also helped the Islamic Republic maintain relative calm in Sistan-Baluchestan, where Sunni militant groups such as Jaish Ul-Adl maintain a presence. This same influence has conversely also made his dismissal a major risk for the authorities.

Replacing Esmailzehi as Friday player leader in Zahedan could risk radicalizing the Sunni Baluch population of Sistan-Baluchestan.
In a possible indication of a recognition of these dynamics, alleged bulletins leaked following the Nov. 25 hacking of Fars News Agency claimed that Khamenei had warned against detaining Esmailzehi over his criticism and instead called for "disgracing" him.

Hardline media's criticism of Esmailzehi comes as the Raisi administration on Dec. 24 appointed an IRGC general as the governor of Sistan-Baluchestan Province.

Mohammad Karami was appointed to the post after serving as commander of the Quds Headquarters of the IRGC Ground Force, a key base with military jurisdiction in Iran's southern and southeastern provinces.
Largely populated by minority Sunni Muslims, impoverished Sistan-Baluchestan has seen a high death toll in the current anti-establishment protests, which first erupted in September.

The future: As the Islamic Republic finds itself challenged by a voice that it has empowered, the authorities will likely be pursuing alternative ways of dealing with Esmailzehi's criticism.

To arrest or remove the top Sunni cleric from his post could trigger instability in the restive southeast, which has seen protests after communal Friday prayers since Sept. 30. It could also spark criticism from Iran’s Sunni neighbors to the south.
The appointment of an IRGC general as the governor of Sistan-Baluchestan will provide more uniformity between the province's administrative and security apparatuses. This could effectively function as a template for more direct involvement in day-to-day governance by the elite force.
Pro-establishment media is likely to ramp up its targeting of Esmailzehi given the risks associated with his removal or detention. At least for the time being, the authorities may consider this as a lower-risk means of dealing with a vocal critic.