The story: Senior Iraqi politicians and commanders associated with the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance” are voicing their condemnation after two rockets hit Baghdad’s Green Zone late on Feb. 22. The assault follows NATO's announcement of plans to expand its mission in Iraq. It also coincides with Iran ramping up pressure on western countries in its nuclear dossier, and Iraq warming up to Saudi Arabia.

The coverage: On the night of Feb. 22, the National Iraqi News Agency quoted Badr Organization Secretary-General Hadi Al-Ameri as saying “we strongly condemn the resumed attacks on diplomatic missions." Ameri added that “terrorizing civilians is an unjustified act under any pretext.” Badr is a key element of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU).

Of particular note, Iran-allied Kata’ib Hezbollah also deplored the rocket attack. The group’s military spokesman, Jaafar Hussaini, alleged that “malign hands, which want to cause confusion, are behind the targeting of the [G]reen [Z]one today.”

Meanwhile, Qais Al-Khazali, the secretary-general of another powerful armed group, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH), raised questions about who benefits from the attacks. He added that his group “has information” which it may disclose “at the right time."

Despite their condemnation of the Feb. 22 attack, paramilitary groups are the main suspects in the eyes of most observers. Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi hinted at their potential involvement and the possible presence of foreign elements in the incident by stating that “Iraq will not be an arena for settling scores.”

On his part, the prime minister of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, Masrour Barzani, condemned “the attacks on the US embassy,” adding that “[d]iplomatic missions take [an] enormous risk to be in Iraq.” Other critics of the 'Axis of Resistance', including senior politician Iyad Allawi and the Turkey-based former Nineveh governor Atheel Al-Nujafi, have also decried the attack.

The context/analysis: The Feb. 22 assault on the Green Zone—also home to the US embassy—is the third of its kind in the past ten days, and the second to remain unclaimed by any group.

On Feb. 15, rockets were fired at a military base hosting Coalition forces in Erbil. A low-profile group, believed to be a surrogate for a more prominent armed force, claimed responsibility. More recently, on Feb. 20, rockets were fired at Balad airbase in Salah Al-Din governorate. The base is known to host western contractors. No group has so far claimed responsibility for the assault.

Importantly, condemnations from senior paramilitary group commanders do not signify anything particularly new. Similar stances were expressed following a Sept. 2020 attack on Baghdad’s international airport, which is also home to a US military base. Indeed, the reactions of any armed group in Iraq to attacks on US interests are certainly formulated with the prospect of US reprisals in mind.

In Oct. 2020, the same paramilitary groups declared a suspension of attacks against US forces. The truce, however, was on condition that the Iraqi government present a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from the country. The hiatus remained in place until the Feb. 15 rocket attack in Erbil, which we covered at the time.

In terms of the US position, former president Donald Trump had threatened to shut down the American embassy in September of last year, specifically citing “Shiite militias… launching attacks on diplomatic missions.” In December, Trump declared an ultimatum aimed at Iran, following another rocket attack on the US embassy. This occurred against the backdrop of two visits to Baghdad in November and December by the commander of the Iran’s Quds Force, Esmail Qa’ani. His alleged mission was to stop armed groups from targeting US interests.

Another factor to consider is that the attacks come amid highly public steps to enhance cooperation between Baghdad and Riyadh. Iran is keeping a close eye on the prospect of deeper collaboration between Iraq and its regional rival, Saudi Arabia. Indeed, just last month, Kata’ib Hezbollah openly expressed its approval of an alleged drone attack on the Saudi king’s main palace.

The future: While Iraqi paramilitary groups express their rejection of certain attacks, possibly launched by rogue elements, the overall tempo of assaults on Coalition forces will likely intensify in the coming weeks.

One motive is to convey a message to NATO that the planned expansion of its mission is unwelcome and will be challenged.

There is also Iran’s position to consider. Tehran has a motive in stepping up pressure to gain leverage ahead of potential talks with the US. Yet, given that the latter reduces the space for diplomacy sought by moderate President Hassan Rouhani, such action could potentially be linked to domestic spoilers in Iran—and indeed their partners in Iraq.