Apr. 25, 2023

Iran debates referendum amid controversy over rare dissent before Khamenei

Iran/Society

The story: Amid ongoing political and social tensions, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has rejected calls by pro-reform figures and critics for a referendum to forge a way forward. Instead, he has called for unity within Iran’s political establishment and among the public. This comes amid controversy over footage of a rare display of dissent expressed directly before Khamenei by an apparent student.

The coverage: In an Apr. 18 address to a group of students, Khamenei dismissed recent calls by critics and pro-reform figures for a referendum as a means of resolving the country's issues.

  • Members of the political establishment calling for a plebiscite notably include moderate former president Hassan Rouhani (2013-21).
  • Khamenei's ruling out of a referendum was followed by the support of Iranian state media, which accused dissidents and foreign media of "distorting" the supreme leader's comments on the matter.

Iranian media and supporters of the establishment on social media highlighted the large crowd attending Khamenei's Apr. 22 sermon on the occasion of Eid Al-Fitr—marking the end of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadhan—as proof of there being no need for a referendum.

  • One pro-establishment user accused critics of "pitting people against each other" by "insisting on a referendum." The comments were in response to a detractor who wrote that "both sides" should be given a chance to opine on a plebiscite.

  • Another critic, meanwhile, pointed to the "fear" of state supporters about "free elections" and questioned the faith of pro-establishment users in the belief that they constitute "the majority of the Iranian people."

In his Eid sermon, Khamenei underlined the importance of unity both among the people and between the three branches of government.

  • "In a society, there are different tendencies, different beliefs, different views...there is no problem with that," the top official said on Apr. 22, adding that people should all “live together, work together, be kind to each other” in the face of the “enemy who wants to sow division.”

  • The supreme leader also underlined the importance of “cooperation and cohesion” among the executive, judiciary, and legislative branches. His remarks were part of a sermon.

On the same day, a video was released of the Apr. 18 address by Khamenei, showing how his speech was interrupted by a member of the audience.

  • The individual who interrupted Khamenei was an apparent student who questioned the "transparency" of the authorities when "every day, something is happening to people." The clip, widely circulated by foreign-based Persian-language media, showed the student’s interjection as largely left unanswered by Khamenei and the event then abruptly coming to an end amid a commotion among the crowd.

However, state media on Apr. 23 accused foreign media of fabricating “tensions” via selective video editing and released a longer clip showing the “full version” of events.

  • Fars News Agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), wrote that Khamenei’s response to the apparent student’s interjection had been cut. The longer version of the clip shows Khamenei telling the individual that nothing will be resolved by verbal sparring and that there are differences of opinion in society that ought to be respected. The event does not appear to have ended after the brief exchange. According to Fars, the shorter version making the rounds on social media misrepresented the commotion towards the end of the event, saying that supporters of the supreme leader customarily asked for his kaffiyeh scarf.

The context/analysis: Khamenei's rejection of a referendum came in apparent response to calls by leading pro-reform figures for changes to the constitution and a plebiscite to decide major state policies.

  • Former president Rouhani on Apr. 4 described a referendum as the "main solution to the country's problems."

  • Mir Hossein Mousavi—a jailed leader of the opposition Green Movement—on Feb. 4 called for the drafting of a new constitution that would be implemented once a "f­­­ree and fair" plebiscite is held.

  • Reformist former president (1997-2005) Mohammad Khatami on Feb. 5 called for democratic reforms to the structure of the establishment, albeit stopping short of calling for wholesale change to the constitution.

  • Influential Sunni cleric and establishment critic Abdolhamid Esmailzehi, popularly known as Molavi Abdolhamid, also backed a referendum in Nov. 2022.

Iran holds parliamentary and presidential elections every four years, with candidates vetted by the constitutional watchdog, the Guardian Council.

  • According to the country's constitution, a referendum can only be held if it is backed by two-thirds of the parliament and approved by the Guardian Council's 12 members. Of note, half of the members of the Guardian Council are appointed by the supreme leader.

The display of dissent during Khamenei's Apr. 18 speech—purportedly by a member of the volunteer Basij paramilitary force—could be telling of a lack of consensus among even the most loyal supporters of the establishment.

  • The legitimacy of the Islamic Republic has been hotly debated in the months after street demonstrations sparked by the Sept. 2022 death of a young woman in the custody of morality police.

The future: The supreme leader's call for unity might be indicative of concerns about the rising tensions within the establishment as well as between government supporters and critics.

  • There are no indications that the state will agree to the call by prominent pro-reform figures for a referendum on major national issues and changes to the constitution.

  • Disagreements among its supporters would be an equally undesirable prospect for the establishment. Coupled with the record-low voter turnout in the 2021 presidential elections, the Islamic Republic faces a daunting task in convincing the public of the possibility of change through the ballot box—especially ahead of parliamentary polls next year.

 

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فارسیPersian
فارسیPersian
عربيArabic
عربيArabic