Quick links
© 2020 amwaj.media - All Rights Reserved.
Your support keeps us independent
Subscriptions help us deliver original coverage of the region's most important issues.The story: Iran has warned Britain and the European Union against proscribing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, cautioning that such a step will be met with a strong response. This comes as division is mounting in Europe over how to approach the Islamic Republic amid the deadlock over the 2015 nuclear deal as well as Iran’s crackdown on dissent at home and military cooperation with Russia.
The rise in tension between Iran and Europe is taking place in parallel with large-scale Israel-US military drills seemingly geared to signal a readiness for confrontation with Tehran.
The coverage: There has been mounting pressure on the European Union in recent weeks to blacklist the IRGC over its clampdown on anti-establishment protests and Iran’s sales of armed drones to Russia. Moscow has reportedly used the weapons in the Ukraine war.
Top Iranian officials have condemned the prospect of Europe blacklisting the IRGC, with some warning of retaliatory action.
Meanwhile, state media in Iran also signalled that there will be strong reactions by the Islamic Republic in case Europe follows the US in labelling the Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.
The context/analysis: The IRGC and its subsidiaries are already subject to extensive western sanctions. This trajectory has accelerated significantly in the aftermath of Iran’s crackdown on anti-establishment protests which first erupted last September.
However, seasoned observers have privately indicated to Amwaj.media that there are divisions in Europe on how to proceed.
The US has already labelled the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Iran responded to the Donald Trump administration’s 2019 designation of the elite force by blacklisting US Central Command.
The future: Given its status as a national military and major economic actor, a European designation of the IRGC would be a major escalation. However, given the existing extensive western sanctions on the elite force, the practical consequences for Iran would be limited.
If Europe pursues a blacklisting of the IRGC, reciprocal measures could entail Iran’s designation of European militaries and potential targeting of European citizens in the region.