Jan. 24, 2023

Iran-Europe tensions surge amid major Israel-US military drills

Iran/Security

The story: Iran has warned Britain and the European Union against proscribing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, cautioning that such a step will be met with a strong response. This comes as division is mounting in Europe over how to approach the Islamic Republic amid the deadlock over the 2015 nuclear deal as well as Iran’s crackdown on dissent at home and military cooperation with Russia.

The rise in tension between Iran and Europe is taking place in parallel with large-scale Israel-US military drills seemingly geared to signal a readiness for confrontation with Tehran. 

The coverage: There has been mounting pressure on the European Union in recent weeks to blacklist the IRGC over its clampdown on anti-establishment protests and Iran’s sales of armed drones to Russia. Moscow has reportedly used the weapons in the Ukraine war.

  • The European parliament on Jan. 19 passed a non-binding motion calling for the IRGC to be designated as a terrorist organization.

  • The EU Council of Ministers convened on Jan. 23 to decide on punitive measures against Iran but stopped short of blacklisting the Iranian elite force. Instead, the bloc imposed sanctions on dozens of individuals and entities in Iran, including units of the IRGC.

  • In a coordinated move, Britain on Jan. 23 adopted sanctions against several IRGC commanders and the Basij paramilitary force, a part of the Guard Corps.


Top Iranian officials have condemned the prospect of Europe blacklisting the IRGC, with some warning of retaliatory action.

  • Reacting to the EU parliament’s non-binding resolution, President Ebrahim Raisi called the move "desperate" and coming in the wake of "unsuccessful efforts" to instigate violence in Iran. The Iranian political establishment has been rocked by protests sparked by the death in police custody of a young woman in Sept. 2022.

  • Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf defended the IRGC as "the largest force fighting terrorism" and warned of retaliation by the Iranian parliament if the Guard Corps is designated. He added that Tehran would deal with Europe "in a completely different way" if the EU should go ahead with such a move. Qalibaf later said that Iran would blacklist EU armies "in the region" as a response.

  • Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian declared that Iran does not rule out withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a retaliatory measure against Europe’s potential designation of the IRGC. Of note, he also criticized the "inexperienced" German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock for pushing such a step.

  • General Staff of the Armed Forces warned the European bloc against "the consequences" of any "ill-advised" and "ridiculous" actions.

  • Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, himself a former high-ranking member of the IRGC, said on Jan. 18 said that the elite force would be unaffected by a blacklisting by Europe.

Meanwhile, state media in Iran also signalled that there will be strong reactions by the Islamic Republic in case Europe follows the US in labelling the Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.

  • Jam-e Jam newspaper, run by the state broadcaster, viewed the IRGC's possible blacklisting as a "declaration of war" by western powers.

  • IRGC-affiliated Javan daily credited the Guard Corps with "ensuring security in the Persian Gulf." In a possible veiled threat, the paper added that foreign vessels entering the Persian Gulf do so with the IRGC's "permission" and "oversight."

  • Kayhan daily, whose chief editor is appointed by the supreme leader, warned in separate op-eds on consecutive days of Iran's "numerous and various options for a response" to a European designation of the IRGC. The paper further suggested that the elite force use its presence in the Persian Gulf in possible retaliation against a European blacklisting.

The context/analysis: The IRGC and its subsidiaries are already subject to extensive western sanctions. This trajectory has accelerated significantly in the aftermath of Iran’s crackdown on anti-establishment protests which first erupted last September.

  • Germany’s foreign minister on Jan. 9 described the blacklisting of the elite Iranian force as "politically important." France on Jan. 10 also pointed to the prospect of the IRGC’s designation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has additionally supported such a measure.

  • In Britain, an unnamed government official on Jan. 12 said the Rishi Sunak administration was actively considering proscribing the IRGC.

However, seasoned observers have privately indicated to Amwaj.media that there are divisions in Europe on how to proceed. 

  • The EU Council of Ministers notably decided to stop short of blacklisting the IRGC in its entirety. While Germany has been among the most hawkish EU members on the issue, other nations including France have advocated a more pragmatic approach.

  • In the UK, informed observers have pointed to apparent divisions within the Sunak government. While the Home Office is said to be in favor of designating the IRGC, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has pushed back against what is seen as mainly a symbolic move that will invite high risks without tangible dividends.

The US has already labelled the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Iran responded to the Donald Trump administration’s 2019 designation of the elite force by blacklisting US Central Command.

  • Amid the months-long deadlock on the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal, Israel and the US are currently engaged in major joint military exercises in the region geared to signal a readiness for war in case Iran pursues a nuclear weapon.

  • Meanwhile, US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley has stated that Washington will pursue further efforts to press China to halt its imports of Iranian oil. Of note, Beijing is among Tehran’s last remaining oil customers. 

The future: Given its status as a national military and major economic actor, a European designation of the IRGC would be a major escalation. However, given the existing extensive western sanctions on the elite force, the practical consequences for Iran would be limited.

  • The US blacklisting of the IRGC has been a point of contention between the US and Iran in the deadlocked negotiations to revive the nuclear deal. Further designations by Britain and the EU would likely additionally complicate any diplomatic engagement.

  • Informed observers of Iran have recently indicated to Amwaj.media that Iran has expressed a willingness to pursue what was on the table when the nuclear talks broke up last autumn. If accurate, the Islamic Republic could be faced with increasing political complexities added by its crackdown on protests at home and military cooperation with Russia. In this vein, some analysts have indicated that the Joe Biden administration may no longer be interested in what has been negotiated.

If Europe pursues a blacklisting of the IRGC, reciprocal measures could entail Iran’s designation of European militaries and potential targeting of European citizens in the region.

  • Other potential risks involve the IRGC delivering on its threats to close the Persian Gulf to western commercial vessels. Of note, the elite force held naval drills in the area on Jan. 17 while Iranian state media has repeatedly proposed blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow sea channel through which more than a fifth of the world's oil supply flows.
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فارسیPersian
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