The story: Iran’s president has stirred controversy with remarks perceived by some as threatening a coup. Speaking on the occasion of Army Day, moderate Hassan Rouhani suggested that the force must side with the people if and when a nation grows dissatisfied with a country’s political system.

The coverage: Hardliners have also interpreted Rouhani’s comments as an implicit attack against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He stated on Apr. 18, “It is a democratic principle that the soldier obeys the commander. But it is also clear that the army must support a government that has not betrayed its people,” the president stated. These comments stirred reactions on social media and triggered the anger of some conservatives.

Kayhan daily, whose editor is directly appointed by Khamenei, accused the president on Apr. 19 of seeking to create a “bipolarity” between military and non-military governments ahead of the June presidential elections. Reformists have been warning about the formation of a military government amid speculations that several commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are contemplating a presidential run.

The moderate Khabar Online news site charged back that Kayhan “does not even tolerate the president’s message regarding the army staying out of politics.”

Meanwhile, some conservative journalists likened the president’s remarks to a threat of a coup against the Islamic Republic. They interpreted Rouhani’s call for the army to support the government as a call for the force to stand with him and against Khamenei.

Abdullah Ganji, the chief editor of the IRGC-linked Javan newspaper, wondered on Apr. 19 why Rouhani would make such statements when only “seven percent” of the people support him. While the basis of Ganji’s assertion is unclear, some polls have indicated that Rouhani’s approval ratings have heavily declined over the past few years.

Naser Mousavi Largani, a hardline MP, also urged the judiciary on the same day to put Rouhani on trial for “provoking the armed forces.”

While Reformists mostly stayed silent, some reacted sarcastically, indicating that the prospect of the army throwing its weight behind Rouhani is far from reality.

The context/analysis: Iran has in effect two parallel militaries, each with its own ground, naval and air forces. The IRGC was founded in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic revolution and tasked with protecting the nascent revolutionary government from a coup by the regular army. The two forces were supposed to merge in the late 1980s, to which Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini reportedly agreed. However, he requested that then-parliament speaker Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani postpone the matter until further notice. Just as the meetings regarding the military integration reportedly began, the newly-appointed supreme leader Khamenei stopped the process. The IRGC and the army have been two distinct forces, often locked in rivalry, with two distinct profiles in the eyes of many Iranians ever since.

While the army has typically distanced itself from politics, the IRGC has tended to take on an active role in both governance and the economy. The Corps reportedly backed hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in his successful 2005 and 2009 campaigns for president in addition to hardline candidate Ebrahim Raisi’s unsuccessful 2017 presidential run.

Interpreting Rouhani’s remarks as a coup threat appears far-fetched, especially considering the president’s rumored interest in positioning himself as a candidate for supreme leader following the death of Khamenei. In other words, a coup attempt would amount to political suicide.

It is therefore more likely that Rouhani’s remarks are part of a strategy to deflect the mounting hardliner attacks on Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif by conservatives who reject an improvement of relations with the west.

Diplomats from the Iranian foreign ministry and other government bodies are currently engaged in indirect negotiations with the US in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. The accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was initially signed between Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany). It puts restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program in return for sanctions relief. Former US president Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Obama-era accord in 2018.

Rouhani is also probably seeking to ensure that the IRGC does not meddle in the upcoming elections while simultaneously alerting voters not to cast their ballots for any Corps commanders.

The future: As the June presidential elections draw nearer, Rouhani is likely to make similarly controversial statements targeting the IRGC’s preferred candidates. By adopting this strategy, he may be hoping to stir up an unenthusiastic Reformist voter base and persuade them to cast their ballots. Additionally, a successful revival of the nuclear deal could lead to increased voter turnout in favor of Reformist candidates.

However, Rouhani’s remarks on the military may cause a more serious backlash if hardliners deem them to be crossing the red lines of the Islamic Republic. In that scenario, the continuation of such remarks are likely to complicate if not endanger his political life following the end of his presidency in August.