The story: Iran and Russia have strongly condemned Israel for a deadly attack on a residential district of the Syrian capital. In an apparent escalation, the strike is claimed to have targeted senior Iranian military commanders.

Iranian state media say no Iranian was killed. Meanwhile, reports allege that western intelligence tipped off Iraqi authorities about an impending onslaught, triggering the evacuation of the targeted sites.
The attack in Damascus also notably comes just over a week after a tanker owned by an Israeli billionaire was reportedly hit by drones in the Arabian Sea. The maritime incident in turn followed a drone strike on a military workshop in central Iran blamed on Israel.

The coverage: At least five people were killed in the alleged Israeli strike on Damascus in the early hours of Feb. 19, according to the Syrian military.

The missiles struck the Kafr Sousa neighborhood, where a heavily guarded security complex is located. Officials say four civilians and a soldier were killed.
Israel regularly attacks targets in Syria claimed to be linked to Iran, though it rarely claims responsibility. Missile strikes on residential areas are not common.
The attack on Damascus came less than two weeks after a deadly 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck northern Syria and southern Turkey. The death toll of the Feb. 6 quake has surpassed 46,000, with at least 5,800 people killed in Syria.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani condemned Israel hours after the attack and accused Tel Aviv of "trying to exacerbate the pain and suffering" of Syrians.

Kanani also criticized the west's "shameful" silence over "the repeated violation of Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity."
The Iranian spokesman demanded an "immediate, serious, and effective response" from international bodies, including the United Nations Security Council.

Russia also strongly condemned the attack on Damascus, calling it a “flagrant violation of international law.” Moscow has been allied with Tehran in Syria for years, jointly targeting armed groups fighting the rule of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Feb. 19 “strongly” urged Israel “to stop armed provocations against the Syrian Arab Republic and refrain from steps that are fraught with dangerous consequences for the entire region.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a meeting with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen on Feb. 16 referred to Israel as “our important partner in the Middle East” and described Iran as “a common enemy.”

Shortly after the missile strike, social media was rife with rumors that Esmail Qa'ani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) expeditionary Quds Force, had been killed.

Without naming Qa'ani, Iran's official news agency IRNA on Feb. 19 reported that "no Iranians were injured" in the attack. The Quds Force commander is claimed to have visited Syria in the days prior to the missile strike.
Hours before the incident, Qa'ani was seen in the audience in Tehran as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered his annual speech on the anniversary of Prophet Muhammad's first revelation.

The main target of the strikes is claimed to have been the offices of “Unit 840” of the Quds Force, whose existence has not been confirmed by Iran.

The alleged headquarters of Unit 840 has been described as located across from an Iranian school, which IRNA news agency said "has not been damaged."
Some reports claim the commander of Unit 840 survived the attack because the building had been evacuated. A western intelligence agency allegedly informed Iraqi authorities of the impending attack, who then reportedly tipped off Iran.

The context/analysis: Qa'ani was appointed as commander of the Quds Force in Jan. 2020, after his predecessor—Qasem Soleimani—was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad.

Iran retaliated against the assassination of Soleimani with missile attacks on American military bases in Iraq, although no US soldiers were killed.

Unit 840 is claimed to have been set up in 2016 and allegedly tasked with carrying out attacks outside Iran.

Of note, there are no apparent references to an entity known as Unit 840 in Iranian media.
In May 2022, IRGC colonel Hassan Sayyad Khodaei—said to have been a senior member of Unit 840—was assassinated near his home in Tehran in an attack that Iran blames on Israel.

The strike on Damascus came just two days after reports that a tanker owned by an Israeli billionaire had been attacked by "several Iranian drones" on Feb. 10.

Military sources in the region—including a US military official—claimed to BBC Persian on Feb. 17 that Shahed-136 drones were used to target Campo Square in the Arabian Sea.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who assumed office on Dec. 29, formally blamed Iran for the attack on Feb. 19.

Tehran has not commented on the Feb. 10 incident, but it follows a drone attack on a military workshop in the central Iranian city of Isfahan on Jan. 28.

Iran on Feb. 1 accused Israel of being behind the attack in Isfahan. On Feb. 9, IRGC spokesperson Ramezan Sharif asserted that "painful responses" had been “delivered” to Israel.

The future: The alleged Israeli attack on Syria is a major escalation as Netanyahu—who has allied himself with far-right parties—is facing mass protests at home over planned judicial reforms.

Iran, which maintains that it does not have boots on the ground in Syria and refers to its presence as limited to “advisors," is not likely to engage Israel directly.
Some observers posit that Iran has sought to establish a formula in which Israeli strikes in Syria receive responses in the form of attacks on US interests in Syria. Moreover, naval vessels linked to Israel have also been targeted on repeated occasions in past years.
Given Ukraine’s apparent effort to secure greater support from Israel, closer collaboration between Kyiv and Tel Aviv could shift dynamics in Syria. While Iran and Russia jointly back Assad, Moscow has sought to maintain a working relationship with Israel. A breakdown in the latter could be a potential game changer.