Nov. 29, 2023

Iran signals de-escalation on Gaza amid pressure on Israel’s Muslim partners

Iran/Politics

The story: Following Tehran’s declared backing for the truce in Gaza, Iran’s supreme leader has doubled down on his insistence that a referendum should end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei notably dismissed the notion that the Islamic Republic seeks the expulsion of Jews, underscoring that some African countries which ended colonial rule saw it as “expedient” to keep white settlers.

Khamenei additionally charged that the events since the Palestinian Hamas movement’s surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7 have collapsed sectarian and ethnic dichotomies which have divided the region. At the same time, Iran has been upping pressure on Muslim countries which maintain trade with Israel.

The coverage: Speaking on Nov. 29, Khamenei derided claims that Iran wants to expel all “Jews or Zionists” from present-day Israel.

  • Iran’s top decision maker said, “Some in the world, when speaking about the Islamic Republic’s views on the region, are lying when they claim that Iran says all Jews or Zionists should be thrown into the sea. No, these are things stated by some among the Arabs in the past. We never said this. We don’t throw anyone into the sea.”

  • Khamenei continued, “We say…that a government that is established upon a popular vote in Palestine will make a decision about the people who are there and who have come from other countries, and it may be that it says that all should remain in Palestine.”


The supreme leader also referenced his experiences in post-colonial countries in Africa as president in the 1980s as a possible model for how a future Palestine could look.

  • Khamenei highlighted that “the [African] natives resisted and became victorious in upending the English [rule]” but nonetheless “kept the English in their countries because they saw it as expedient.”

  • Importantly, while charging that a future government in Palestine “may keep [all people] in Palestine, or may say that some or all should leave,” he underscored that it will be “their decision” and that Iran has “never had an opinion on this matter.”

Khamenei further asserted that “fake and imposed dichotomies” pitting Arabs versus non-Arabs and Shiites against Sunnis have collapsed amid the Gaza war.

  • Iran’s top decision maker said Shiite Muslims had prior to the Oct. 7 surprise attack on Israel been the ones to come to the aid of Palestinians “the most,” but that “instead of these imposed dualities,” a new dominant dichotomy has emerged of “resistance” versus “submission.”

The apparent effort to moderate outside views of Iran’s regional policies comes as the foreign ministry in Tehran says the Islamic Republic has been pushing for a lasting ceasefire between Hamas and Israel.

  • During his weekly press briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said Iran’s “demand and expectation” is for Israel’s “crimes against the people of Gaza to stop completely.”

  • The ministry spokesman added that Iran “is in talks with parties in the region” and that “one of the goals of the negotiations” is to turn the pause in fighting into a “sustainable” ceasefire.

Two days earlier, on Nov. 25, the supreme leader’s office published an infographic naming Muslim countries that continue to trade with Tel Aviv.

  • Entitled “Which Muslim countries are filling the gas tank of the killing machine?”, the infographic names seven Muslim countries and details the alleged volumes of their commodity and energy exports to Israel “based on reliable sources.”

  • The infographic explicitly names Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).


Ayatollah Alireza Arafi—appointed by Khamenei as a member of the Guardian Council in June 2019—on Nov. 27 criticized Muslim nations that have retained ties with Israel.

  • Arafi, who is also head of Iranian Seminaries, said it was “regrettable” that such nations have maintained their relations and claimed that some had even “expanded their ties” without specifically naming any state.

  • Speaking at an event in Indonesia, the senior Iranian cleric insisted that “not a drop of oil should reach the Zionist regime from the Muslim world.”

The context/analysis: Iran has over the past month been calling on Muslim states to cut all ties with Israel in the wake of the Gaza war.

  • Khamenei initially pushed for a boycott on Nov. 1, urging Muslim states to "block means of oil and food exports" to Israel.
  • On Nov. 19, the top Iranian official renewed his call for an embargo and attempted to persuade holdouts by suggesting that a temporary cut in relations with Israel would be the “least” such states could do for the Palestinians.

Iran’s calls for a boycott come amid reports of attacks on Israel-linked ships off the coast of Yemen in past weeks.

  • Two incidents have been claimed by Yemen’s Ansarullah movement, better known as the Houthis. The group notably has close relations with Iran.

  • A suspected drone attack against a reportedly Israeli-controlled ship in the Indian Ocean on Nov. 24 has not been claimed.


Iranian media have been critical of the Muslim world’s response to the Hamas-Israel war.

  • Several prominent regional states, including Jordan and Turkey, were following the Nov. 11 Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit criticized for their “treachery”—pointing to the lack of “actionable measures” in support of Gaza.

  • A peace summit in Egypt on Oct. 21 was slammed by hardline media in Iran as a “futile” attempt by “womanizing” Arab leaders to address the crisis.

The Qatar-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which went into effect on Nov. 24, has been hailed as a “victory” for the Palestinian movement by Iranian officials and hardline media.

  • The deal included a four-day pause in fighting as well as the release of 50 hostages taken by Hamas in return for Israel freeing 150 Palestinian prisoners.

  • The truce has since been extended on the condition that 10 more prisoners are freed by Hamas each day.

The future: The Gaza war has presented Iran with an opportunity to not only try to derail Arab normalization with Israel but also pressure Muslim countries such as neighboring Azerbaijan. Baku enjoys close ties with Tel Aviv and is currently pursuing improved ties with Tehran after a period of tension.

  • Iran has been calling for a Muslim boycott of Israel for over a month, and the odds of broad multilateral sanctions on Tel Aviv remain slim.

  • Israel's oil suppliers in the OIC are unlikely to halt their exports, with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan continuing to provide much of Israeli demand.

  • Iran will likely maintain its calls for a longer ceasefire, driven by the view that a halt to the fighting in Gaza will constitute a strategic defeat for Israel.
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