Iran signals desire to maintain ties with Syria after Assad’s fall

The story: The longtime rule of the Assad dynasty has come to an end after Syrian rebels seized Damascus. The collapse of the Islamic Republic’s only state ally has stunned many in Iran. Some attribute Bashar Al-Assad’s downfall to him allegedly turning his back on the ‘Axis of Resistance’ while others argue he paid the price of ignoring his people’s demands.

With Syria now in the hands of rebels that Iran helped Assad previously defeat, Tehran is now signaling that it wants to maintain its relations with Damascus—regardless of who is in power.

The coverage: Rebel forces led by the Sunni Islamist Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) seized Damascus on Dec. 8 after a barely two-week offensive that started in Aleppo.

• Hours later, the Russian foreign ministry said Assad had “left the presidential post and left the country.” Russian state media reported that the former Syrian leader and his family had been granted asylum.
  
  
• Shortly after the rebels declared that they had seized the capital, HTS leader Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani entered Damascus and addressed a crowd at the Umayyad Mosque.
  
  
• As the rebels seized power, videos emerged showing looters entering the presidential palace and the central bank. Meanwhile, Israel launched a series of airstrikes on military and government facilities, while occupying the buffer zone on the Golan Heights.

The Iranian foreign ministry on Dec. 8 called for “a swift end to hostilities” and the “start of a national dialogue” to set up an “inclusive government.”

• Notably, the statement said “it is expected” that Iran-Syria relations will “continue based on common interests.”
  
  
• The ministry said Iran “will spare no effort to help establish security and stability in Syria” and added that Tehran “will continue consultations with all influential parties.”
  
  
• Days earlier, Jolani said during an interview with US media that Iran should reconsider its ties with the Assad government and establish new relations with HTS.

The Iranian statement came after videos and images emerged showing the Iranian embassy building in Damascus being ransacked.

• One video showed a torn picture of slain Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani hung outside the embassy façade.
  
  
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei told reporters that embassy staff had evacuated the building before it was attacked.

Iranian state television notably attributed the sacking of the embassy to individuals “not affiliated with the group in charge” of Syria.

• The state broadcaster’s Dec. 8 report was accompanied by a swift shift in how it refers to Syrian rebels.
  
  
• Since the outset of the Syrian civil conflict in 2011, the rebels were referred to as “takfiri terrorists.” However, in the days leading up to Assad’s fall, state television changed their label to “armed groups” and “armed opposition.” The sudden change has raised eyebrows in Iranian media.

There also appears to have been initial contacts between Iran and at least some of the opposition groups.

• Speaking on state television late on Dec. 8, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran “has spoken to parties” about ensuring the safety of Iran’s embassy and Shiite shrines.
  
  
• Araghchi on Dec. 7 had called for dialogue between the Syrian government and “legitimate opposition groups.”
  
  
• Elaborating on his Dec. 7 comments, Araghchi on Dec. 8 said that rebel groups not designated as terrorists by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) are considered legitimate. HTS is designated by the UNSC.

The top Iranian diplomat had harsh words for the Syrian army, blaming it for the government’s collapse.

• Araghchi said Iran, a key ally of Assad, was “never supposed to replace the Syrian army in fighting the opposition.”
  
  
• “Syria’s internal affairs and countering the opposition is an issue for the government and army of Syria, not us. The Syrian army did not carry out its duty properly,” he said on state television.
  
  
• The foreign minister added that Assad “did not ask for our help” to deal with Syria’s internal issues.

Opinions are split in Iran over what exactly led to the fall of Assad, whose country was the only other state member of the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’.

• Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, told state television that the Syrian army decided “not to resist” after the city of Homs fell “so that there would be no more bloodshed.”
  
  
• Hardline Iranian lawmaker Hamid Rasaee claimed that Assad fell because “he wanted to prove to the west that he is not a warmonger.” The comment appeared to be a dig at the former Syrian leader’s reluctance to be dragged into the conflict between the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and Israel sparked by the Gaza war.

Media outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which played a crucial role in securing Assad’s grip on power when the Syrian civil conflict broke out, have also weighed in.

• Fars News Agency criticized Assad for “not listening to the Islamic Republic’s advice on democracy” and ultimately paid the price. It also charged that the Assad government had “trusted promises” by other countries in exchange for abandoning the ‘Axis of Resistance.’
  
  
• Tasnim News Agency, meanwhile, opted for a more forward-looking approach. It interviewed conservative pundit Mansour Barati, who said the chaos in Syria might benefit Israel in the short term. However, Barati argued, anti-Israeli sentiments will prevail once a uniform government is formed—causing issues for Tel Aviv.

The collapse of Assad’s government, which has long been accused by rights groups of committing gross human rights violations, has also sparked debate within Iran’s conservative camp.

• One group argues that the lesson to be learned is that “the strength of establishments are tied to the backing of their core supporters.” This group insists on the swift implementation of policies such as the new controversial hijab law, and wants the ouster of pro-diplomacy figures such as Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif.
  
  
• But another group of conservatives charge that “relying on a core group of supporters that are a minority” at the expense of “forgetting the majority of people” is a “recipe for a swift fall.”

The context/analysis: The fall of Assad and the likely loss of Syria as an ally is a blow to Iran’s regional policies and deterrence strategy against Israel.

• Syria is essential to Iran’s “forward defense” doctrine and has served as a staging ground to transfer weapons to regional allies, particularly Lebanese Hezbollah.

The IRGC was in 2013 deployed to Syria to assist Assad in suppressing an armed uprising and fighting Sunni extremist organizations.

• The exact number of Iranian "military advisors" who lost their lives during the Syrian conflict remains unknown.
  
  
• While some reports suggest that over 2,000 "defenders of the shrine"—a term frequently used to refer to Iran-backed forces—were killed, most of those casualties are thought to have been Afghan nationals organized by the IRGC.
  
  
• Assad managed to stay in power thanks to Russian air support as well as Hezbollah and Iran putting boots on the ground.
             
• With Assad gone, Iran is unlikely to be compensated for the billions of dollars it spent to keep Assad in power, including fuel shipments.

HTS emerged in the early years of the Syrian civil war and was founded by Jolani.

• Jolani was a member of Al-Qaeda in Iraq in the 2000s and was sent to Syria when the Syrian civil war broke out to set up the Nusrah Front to serve as Al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch.
  
  
• Born Ahmed Al-Sharaa, Jolani refused to merge with the Islamic State group (IS) in 2013 and three years later cut ties with Al-Qaeda. Jolani eventually teamed up with other Syrian rebel groups to found HTS in 2017.
  
  
• HTS has tried to rebrand itself and move away from its militant past. However, the group and its leader remain designated as terrorist by the US and a 10M USD bounty on Jolani remains in place.

The future: The likely loss of Syria as an ally would deal a major blow to Iran’s prestige, having invested greatly in protecting Assad’s rule.

• The downfall of Assad also spells further trouble for the ‘Axis of Resistance’ and the “forward defense” it can provide. This may prompt Iran to reevaluate its deterrence strategy, sparking intensified calls for the development of a nuclear deterrent.
  
  
• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is scheduled to speak on developments in Syria and the broader region on Dec. 11. His speech may shed some light on Iran’s regional strategy moving forward.

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