The story: Once critical of a temporary monitoring deal with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iranian conservatives are now happy with the decision by President Ebrahim Raisi's government to extend the same agreement indefinitely. Surprised by the move, Iranian Reformist outlets wonder what could have caused the radical change of heart. This is particularly since hardliners opposed the temporary bargain struck earlier this year under moderate former president Hassan Rouhani.

The coverage: Iran on Sept. 12 agreed to allow the UN nuclear watchdog to service its surveillance equipment at Iranian nuclear sites. The move came after IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi travelled to Tehran to meet with Iranian nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami.

The extension of the deal prevented escalation between Iran and the west by saving Tehran from being rebuked by the IAEA's Board of Governors this week. The latter could have had dire consequences for efforts to resuscitate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is formally known.

Fereydoun Abbasi, a hardline lawmaker and former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), told the official IRNA news agency on Sept. 13 that extending the IAEA deal would "prevent" the west from coming up with "excuses" to question Iran's nuclear activities. Of note, Abbasi was seriously wounded in a failed Nov. 2010 assassination attempt blamed on Israel.

The deal with the IAEA was initially signed in February this year after Iran decided to suspend its implementation of the Additional Protocol, thereby restricting enhanced access to its nuclear sites. Struck in the waning months of Rouhani's tenure, the deal allowed the Agency to continue operating its cameras, but with one major caveat: the IAEA would not have access to the footage for at least the duration of the deal, namely three months.

Abbasi at the time strongly criticized the Rouhani administration for making the deal, calling it a "blatant mistake."

With the slow progress of talks in Vienna to revive the JCPOA, the Iran-IAEA accord was extended in May for one month. At the time, Iranian conservatives were also critical of the extension of the deal.

The hardline newspaper Kayhan, which is close to the Office of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said in May that extending the IAEA agreement would make the western signatories to the JCPOA "more brazen." It also published several pieces slamming the decision.

In contrast, the influential newspaper appeared content with factual reporting on the new deal extension on Sept. 13—a point which did not escape pro-reform news site Emtedad's notice. The outlet wrote on the same day that Kayhan "did not publish a single line of analysis" on the IAEA accord struck under Raisi.

Reformist news outlet Entekhab also criticized Kayhan's differing reactions to the IAEA deal extensions under moderate Rouhani vis-à-vis conservative Raisi, noting in a tweet on Sept. 12, "Unlike the extension agreed under the previous government, the current extension between Iran and the Agency has no time limit."

The context/analysis: After former President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA in May 2018, Iran responded by gradually scaling back its commitments under the nuclear deal.

In Dec. 2020, the Iranian parliament passed a law obliging the government to further abandon its adherence to restrictions under the JCPOA—unless then President-elect Joe Biden returned the US to the nuclear deal within a month of taking office. Given that Biden failed that deadline, the Rouhani administration in February reluctantly scrapped key inspection and monitoring measures under the JCPOA, including implementation of the Additional Protocol.

In a bid to avoid an escalation of tensions at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting—mindful of Iranian warnings against any western effort to table an anti-Iran resolution—Agency chief Grossi traveled to Iran in February and struck a deal under which Tehran would allow the Agency's monitoring equipment to operate though the IAEA would not have access to the data for three months. Iran said at the time that if no headway was reached in reviving the JCPOA, it would destroy the data. This agreement has so far been extended twice—once in May and now, in September.

On two occasions following the sixth and last round of JCPOA talks in Vienna this year, then president Rouhani accused the hardliner-dominated parliament of hindering efforts to restore the JCPOA. He said on June 24 that "parliamentary bureaucracy" had prevented the lifting of US sanctions while on July 22 he explicitly criticized the conservative-dominated legislature, claiming that the JCPOA would have been restored by March "if the parliament's law had not impeded us."

Talks on the revival of the JCPOA have been stalled since June 20, two days after Raisi’s victory in Iran’s presidential elections. Of further note, the extension of the May deal with the IAEA expired on June 24.

Iranian officials have said the power transition in Tehran necessitates the pause in the JCPOA talks. But as one senior Iranian official told Amwaj.media on Sept. 1, the talks will likely resume in “not too long.”

The future: Iran has said it will continue negotiations to restore the JCPOA. As such, it will likely present the decision to extend the agreement with the IAEA as a gesture of goodwill once the Vienna talks resume.

The tone of the talks, however, will probably be different going ahead. As Amwaj.media has previously reported, staunch JCPOA critic Ali Baqeri-Kani is slated to take over as deputy foreign minister for political affairs. Baqeri-Kani, who once described the JCPOA as an infant stricken with a myriad of illnesses, will likely serve as Iran's next senior nuclear negotiator—unless the Supreme National Security Council takes charge of the nuclear file.