The story: Iran's chief diplomat Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has said Tehran will resume talks to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) "soon." Internationally, his refusal to give a precise date has caused confusion among friends and foes alike. At home, conservatives see it as a power move—but Reformists say Iran should not push its luck.

The coverage: So far this year, six rounds of indirect Iran-US talks have been held in Vienna to revive the JCPOA. The negotiations stalled on June 20, two days after the election of conservative chief justice Ebrahim Raisi as president. His administration has said time and again that it will return to Vienna to continue negotiations once the power transition in Tehran is complete, but crucially, it has yet to give a specific date.

Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian told NBC News on Sept. 24 that Iran would return to the negotiating table "very soon." In response to comments by a US State Department spokesman as to what exactly that meant, he told Iran's state broadcaster the following day that "soon" in Iranian parlance meant "once our review [of the nuclear file] is complete."

Conservatives have welcomed the Raisi administration's continued refusal to set a date for the resumption of the talks.

Hardline lawmaker Abbas Moqtadaei, the deputy chairman of the parliament's influential national security and foreign policy commission, told Quds Online news site on Sept. 26 that it is now "Iran that can set the conditions and decide the appropriate time to negotiate." He criticized western nations for "wasting their opportunities" and said "the Americans now have to wait for Iran" to decide when to resume the talks.

Political pundit Amir Ali Abolfath wrote in the conservative Khorasan newspaper on Sept. 26 that "the passage of time does not benefit America." He argued that the longer Iran takes to return to the talks, the more leverage it will have.

Of note, then US president Donald Trump (2017-21) unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed all sanctions. His successor Joe Biden promised to re-enter the accord during campaigning for the Nov. 2020 US presidential elections but did not resume any negotiations to revive the accord for several months after taking office in January this year.

"America under Trump played all of its cards to pressure Iran… but Iran still has some cards to play," he wrote. The conservative commentator said Iran could enhance its regional activities, accelerate its ballistic missile program, and continue accumulating uranium enriched at levels that far exceed the limit set in the JCPOA.

However, former diplomat Ali Akbar Farazi believes that delaying the resumption of the talks could make matters "more complicated" to Iran's detriment.

"Experience has shown that in instances like this, [buying time] can do more harm than good," he told the pro-reform Arman-e Melli on Sept. 26.

Yousef Molaei, a political science professor at the University of Tehran, agrees with Farazi. He wrote in an op ed on Sept. 26 that while he is "optimistic" about the future of the talks, he warned that the patience of western nations "has a limit" and Iran did not have an "unlimited" amount of time.

The context/analysis: The Raisi administration's laid-back approach to the resumption of the nuclear talks has frustrated the West and concerned Tehran's allies.

Iran's timetable to return to the negotiating table has changed in the past month. On Aug. 30, Amir-Abdollahian said the government needed "two to three months" to review the nuclear file before resuming the talks. On Sept. 21, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said the negotiations would resume "in the next few weeks." Iranian sources last week told Amwaj.media that all sides are seeking to hold the seventh round of indirect Iran-US talks in the first half of October.

Throughout his recent week-long stay in New York leading Iran's delegation to the UN General Assembly, Amir-Abdollahian repeatedly told foreign dignitaries that Tehran would rejoin talks "soon" while refraining from giving a specific date.

US State Department Spokesman Ned Price appeared frustrated with the Iranian messaging, telling reporters on Sept. 24 that Washington had heard "soon and very soon" all week at the UN. "But we have up until this point not received clarity on what precisely that means," he added. A day earlier, a State Department official had stated, "The window of opportunity… won't be open forever."

Iran also appears to be risking alienating Russia, one of its two allies in the negotiations. Russian envoy to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, tweeted on Sept. 25 that while "our Iranian counterparts can take more time if they need it", he warned that "further delay" can turn the atmosphere of the talks "less conducive to successful continuation and completion of the process."

One reason why Iran may be delaying a return to the talks could be that it wants to increase its leverage by accumulating more highly enriched uranium, thereby putting pressure on the west.

Another motive may be that the Islamic Republic is not yet clear about the composition of its negotiating team. That is in part because Iran has not yet decided whether the foreign ministry will continue to manage the nuclear file or whether it will be returned to the Supreme National Security Council, where it was prior to the election of moderate Hassan Rouhani in 2013.

The future: The Raisi administration's refusal to set a date for the resumption of the negotiations has increased sensitivities both at home and abroad, which will likely put pressure on the negotiating team once the talks resume.

Fearing a breakdown in the diplomatic engagement and feeling pressure at home to deliver, the Raisi government may well end up having to show more flexibility than anticipated. That will not go down well with the president’s conservative support base—which is not something he can afford given his ambitious goals. In other words, the new Iranian president may soon find himself facing a similar conundrum to his moderate predecessor.