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Subscriptions help us deliver original coverage of the region's most important issues.The story: Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani is engaged in high-profile diplomacy to shape a joint regional response to the events in Syria. Sudani’s stepped-up engagement has entailed several meetings with senior US officials and regional leaders. Meanwhile, with Tehran perceived to be on the backfoot, the premier has come under growing foreign pressure to curb the influence of Iraqi armed groups backed by Iran.
The coverage: As Syrian rebels consolidated their hold on the Syrian capital of Damascus, the official Iraqi News Agency reported that Sudani on Dec. 11 had met with Jordanian King Abdullah II in Amman during a one-day visit.
Two days later, on Dec. 13, the premier hosted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in an unannounced visit. Blinken told reporters that the meeting focused on ensuring that Syria’s political transition produces an “inclusive, nonsectarian government” which does not become a “platform for terrorism.”
Syria was also on the agenda when Sudani on Dec. 18 visited Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud at the Saudi crown prince’s winter retreat in Al-Ula.
The context/analysis: Sudani now finds his political career, and the future of Iraq’s regional role, at a critical juncture. Having sought to cultivate an image of facilitating deal-making, some observers suggest that recent events may push the premier to attempt a stark break with allies of Iran who brought him to power in 2022.
Warning of “grave consequences,” Sudani has also in recent weeks wielded the threat that Iraq could backslide to sectarian conflict if conditions worsen in neighboring Syria.
Syria’s new de facto ruler, Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani, is a controversial figure in Iraq. In 2011, then-Islamic State group (IS) leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi tasked Jolani with setting up a branch in Syria. But after establishing Al-Qaida’s Syrian offshoot, the latter in Feb. 2014 formally dissociated itself from IS.
Meanwhile, speculation over a broader international campaign to disband the PMU has grown in recent weeks.
The UN’s representative in Iraq, Mohammad Al-Hassan, has twice since November met Grand Ayatollah Sistani, allegedly seeking a religious edict—known as a fatwa—calling for the demobilization of the PMU.
The future: Regardless of speculations about a shift, Sudani has at least publicly stayed the course with his allies in the Iran-backed Shiite Coordination Framework.
Iraq’s shuttle diplomacy is likely to continue, and may entail the opening of new communication channels with neighboring states.