Dec. 20, 2024

Iraq seeks regional response to Syria crisis amid pressure on PMU

Iraq/Diplomacy

The story: Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani is engaged in high-profile diplomacy to shape a joint regional response to the events in Syria. Sudani’s stepped-up engagement has entailed several meetings with senior US officials and regional leaders. Meanwhile, with Tehran perceived to be on the backfoot, the premier has come under growing foreign pressure to curb the influence of Iraqi armed groups backed by Iran.

The coverage: As Syrian rebels consolidated their hold on the Syrian capital of Damascus, the official Iraqi News Agency reported that Sudani on Dec. 11 had met with Jordanian King Abdullah II in Amman during a one-day visit.

  • Part of a broader Iraqi effort to secure “joint Arab coordination,” Sudani’s visit was reported to focus on “respecting the free will” of the Syrian people, “safeguarding Syria’s territorial integrity” as well as “preserving its ethnic and religious diversity.”

Two days later, on Dec. 13, the premier hosted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in an unannounced visit. Blinken told reporters that the meeting focused on ensuring that Syria’s political transition produces an “inclusive, nonsectarian government” which does not become a “platform for terrorism.”

  • Qatar-based Al-Jazeera later reported that Blinken had privately urged Sudani to take advantage of Iran’s current perceived weakness and move to disband Shiite armed groups.

  • An unnamed US official was further cited by Al-Jazeera as saying that Blinken had warned Sudani not to allow Iran to move arms to Lebanon or Syria via Iraqi territory. 
  • Without mentioning Iran specifically, Blinken subsequently stated that he sees an “opportune moment” for Iraq to “strengthen its sovereignty, stability, security, and future success.”


Syria was also on the agenda when Sudani on Dec. 18 visited Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud at the Saudi crown prince’s winter retreat in Al-Ula.

  • The Iraqi Prime Minister’s Office highlighted that the topics of discussions included “the importance of agreeing on joint coordination regarding the repercussions of the events in Syria.” The readout added that Sudani “expressed readiness to cooperate with its…friends in the region.”

  • Other official accounts of the meeting reiterated past Iraqi positions, including the “unity of Syrian territory” as well as “non-interference in Iraqi affairs.”

The context/analysis: Sudani now finds his political career, and the future of Iraq’s regional role, at a critical juncture. Having sought to cultivate an image of facilitating deal-making, some observers suggest that recent events may push the premier to attempt a stark break with allies of Iran who brought him to power in 2022.

  • Facing accusations of aligning himself too closely to Washington—which have contributed to calls for his resignation amid a high-profile wiretapping controversy—Sudani’s political star only weeks ago seemed to be fading irreversibly.
  • Sudani has seized on the Syrian crisis as a creative opportunity to assert Iraq as indispensable to coalescing a diplomatic path forward for the region. The same dynamic applies to his characterization of his own role as prime minister.

Warning of “grave consequences,” Sudani has also in recent weeks wielded the threat that Iraq could backslide to sectarian conflict if conditions worsen in neighboring Syria.

  • The prime minister’s public statements since the Dec. 7 ouster of former Syrian president Bashar Al-Assad have emphasized that renewed instability could lead to further persecution of religious and ethnic minorities.

Syria’s new de facto ruler, Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani, is a controversial figure in Iraq. In 2011, then-Islamic State group (IS) leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi tasked Jolani with setting up a branch in Syria. But after establishing Al-Qaida’s Syrian offshoot, the latter in Feb. 2014 formally dissociated itself from IS.

  • In June 2014, IS launched a blitz in northern Iraq which saw it capture one-third of the country, with Baghdadi declaring himself as caliph in the city of Mosul.

  • Thousands of Shiite Muslims and Yazidis were killed and captured during the onslaught. However, the blitz was ultimately stopped after a call to arms by Iraq’s supreme Shiite religious authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani. Subsequently, a collection of Shiite armed groups coalesced under a new umbrella force known as the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU).

Meanwhile, speculation over a broader international campaign to disband the PMU has grown in recent weeks.

  • These dynamics have been spurred by apparent divides within Iraq’s Shiite political establishment, and Iran’s apparent unwillingness—if not inability—to protect Assad.
  • While there is little evidence to suggest that moving against Iran-backed armed groups is a near-term goal for Sudani, recent comments by several of his advisors potentially signal an openness to such a move—if conditions are ripe.

The UN’s representative in Iraq, Mohammad Al-Hassan, has twice since November met Grand Ayatollah Sistani, allegedly seeking a religious edict—known as a fatwa—calling for the demobilization of the PMU.

  • Such a statement by Iraq’s top Shiite religious authority would undeniably hold significant weight, particularly given that Sistani’s 2014 call to arms is credited with spurring the formation of the PMU.

  • However, the umbrella force’s formal integration with the Iraqi military suggests that such a demobilization may be both politically and practically unfeasible.

The future: Regardless of speculations about a shift, Sudani has at least publicly stayed the course with his allies in the Iran-backed Shiite Coordination Framework.

  • In a Dec. 19 interview with the official Al-Iraqiya channel, Sudani defended his approach to Syria and rebutted claims that outside powers had imposed “conditions” that would force Iraq’s hand on the fate of the PMU. 

Iraq’s shuttle diplomacy is likely to continue, and may entail the opening of new communication channels with neighboring states.

  • For instance, newly-elected Sunni Parliament Speaker Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani on Dec. 18 met with Jordan’s foreign minister in Amman. While discussions officially focused on enhancing “strategic fraternal relations,” coordination on Syria was likely on the agenda.

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عربيArabic
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