Sep. 30, 2022

Iraqi opposition to mark protest anniversary as parliament convenes

Iraq/Politics

The story: A top Iraqi court has deemed the mass resignations of Sadrist Movement MPs lawful, putting an end to speculations of their possible return to the parliament. The ruling has coincided with lawmakers rejecting the resignation of Speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi in the first session of the legislature since late July. This comes as Iraq is set to mark the anniversary of the eruption of anti-establishment protests in Oct. 2019.

The coverage: Sadrist Movement leader Muqtada Al-Sadr in June ordered his bloc’s 73 MPs to withdraw from the 329-member parliament. The move followed months of deadlock over the formation of Iraq’s next government in the aftermath of the Oct. 2021 parliamentary elections.

  • Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court on Sept. 28 ruled that the mass resignations of Sadrist MPs are valid.

  • Senior Sadrist figure Hamid Al-Ghazi on Sept. 28 stated that the Sadrists “do not want to participate [in the political process] with the corrupt,” adding that the movement does not want “to restore the ‘Muhasasah’ in the government,” referring to the ethno-sectarian apportionment system put in place following the 2003 US-led invasion.

Two days earlier, on Sept. 26, Halbousi cast his resignation against the backdrop of the ongoing political impasse, which has seen Iraq left without a new government for almost a year after its parliamentary elections.

  • However, 220 out of 240 MPs present at the legislature’s Sept. 28 session rejected the speaker’s resignation. The parliament had not convened since Sadrists stormed the building on July 30 and then held a sit-in.

  • Of note, the Sept. 28 session saw 13 lawmakers—independents and MPs affiliated with the Oct. 2019 protest movement— vote in favor of Halbousi stepping down.

  • MPs also elected independent lawmaker Mohsen Al-Mandalawi as first deputy parliament speaker, replacing resigned Sadrist MP Hakem Al-Zameli.

The Shiite Coordination Framework on Sept. 28 welcomed the resumption of parliamentary sessions, urging the “continuation of talks within the State Administration Alliance…on the formation of a new government.”

  • The “State Administration Alliance” refers to a new bloc that Iran-backed Shiite groups are reportedly attempting to set up together with Kurdish and Sunni parties.

Meanwhile, Baghdad’s Green Zone was hit by rockets as lawmakers convened, reportedly injuring at least 7 security personnel.

  • Telegram channels supportive of the Coordination Framework accused Sadrists of firing the rockets.

  • However, an affiliate of Sadr known to convey his views on Sept. 28 denied any involvement, stating that the attack was carried out by “unknown assailants” to “cause strife.”

  • The parliamentary session was also held as Sadrist protesters were demonstrating outside the Green Zone. The demonstration turned violent and left at least 133 people injured, most of them security personnel.

The context/analysis: The Sadrists became the single largest bloc in the Oct. 2021 parliamentary elections, with MPs renewing Halbousi’s speakership in the first session after the polls.

  • The Sadrists sought to form a “national majority” government along with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Sunni blocs, challenging the post-2003 norm of a “consensus” government.

  • After the failure of the gambit, Sadr in June ordered his MPs to resign, opening the path for the rival Coordination Framework to instead attempt to set up a cabinet.

However, when the Coordination Framework moved to push through its prime minister-designate on July 30, the session was preempted by Sadrists who stormed the parliament, demanding the dissolution of the legislature, new elections, and constitutional reforms.

  • Following a weeks-long sit-in by his supporters outside the parliament, Sadr in late August sparked nationwide protests when he announced his “final retirement” from politics. After the protests turned bloody, Sadr ordered his supporters to withdraw from the streets and to end their sit-in.

Days later, on Sept. 8, Sadr called on his Kurdish and Sunni allies as well as independent MPs to resign from the parliament, a move he said would strip the legislature of its legitimacy. He also said the return of Sadrist lawmakers to the parliament was “strictly prohibited.”

  • However, KDP leader Masoud Barzani and Sunni Parliament Speaker Halbousi rejected Sadr’s demand and joined the Sadrists’ Shiite rivals in urging the formation of a “government with full authority” ahead of early elections.

The future: Parties associated with the Oct. 2019 protest movement will on Oct. 1 mark the anniversary of the eruption of anti-establishment demonstrations. Most observers expect the Sadrists to join them, particularly as the movement’s armed wing—Saraya Al-Salam—roamed the streets of Baghdad and Basra late on Sept. 30.

  • Reports surfaced in late September that a high-ranking delegation made up of Coordination Framework, KDP and Sunni figures would soon visit Sadr. Given the Federal Supreme Court ruling and the reconvening of the parliament, the prospects of Sadr welcoming such engagement are getting slimmer.

  • The Coordination Framework is likely to ramp up efforts to realize the formation of its envisioned State Administration Alliance, a critical step towards forming Iraq’s next government.
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