Jan. 11, 2022

Will a JCPOA revival entail prompt release of Iran's assets in Iraq, S Korea?

Iran/Diplomacy

The story: South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-Kun has met with Iranian and western officials in Vienna, giving rise to speculations about how a revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal may look. Ties between Tehran and Seoul have frayed in the aftermath of the 2018 US withdrawal from the nuclear accord and reimposition of all sanctions. Apart from cutting South Korean imports of Iranian condensate, US sanctions have reportedly left 7B USD worth of Iranian assets frozen in Korean banks.

Against this backdrop, a prominent Iranian analyst has charged that the first stage of a US re-entry into the nuclear deal may involve the unfreezing of Iranian assets in Iraq and South Korea in exchange for a freeze on 60% enrichment.

The coverage: Choi met with a series of officials in the Austrian capital last week, where Iran and world powers are negotiating a revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the nuclear deal is formally known.

  • After meeting with Iranian senior nuclear negotiator Ali Baqeri-Kani on Jan. 6, Choi tweeted that the encounter was “good” and involved exchanging “views on our bilateral relationship including the frozen fund.” He added that South Korea and Iran “will work together and preserve our historically important relationship.”

However, current and former Iranian officials have differed on whether Choi’s visit is linked to the indirect negotiations with the US on a revival of the JCPOA.

  • Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh stated on Jan. 5 that Choi’s presence in Vienna was a personal decision. He emphasized that the South Korean diplomat’s meetings had nothing to do with the Iran-P4+1 (Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) talks on the JCPOA and that Korean officials have met with several of the delegations present in Vienna.

  • Qasem Mohebali, a former head of the Middle East desk at Iran’s foreign ministry, on the same day told the pro-reform Entekhab news site, “The Koreans are interested in expanding and maintaining relations with Iran, but their major problem is the US sanctions and the fact that they cannot release Iran’s frozen assets.” He added, “Perhaps they want to evaluate and see how likely the negotiations are to succeed, and also to aid the progression of the talks.”

  • Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, the former chairman of the Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission (2018-19), told Hamshahri daily on Jan. 4, “My assessment is that the trend of the negotiations is positive.“ The former lawmaker charged that the negotiating parties have “concluded that the possibility of reaching an agreement is more than the lack of an agreement. In such conditions, the green lights exceed the red lights, and therefore we will see positive behaviors in practice.”

Iranian observers have welcomed Choi’s diplomatic engagement with Iranian and western officials, sparking speculations that South Korea will play a key role in at least the initial phase of a revival of the JCPOA.

  • Speaking to the conservative Farhikhtegan daily, foreign policy expert Hassan Hanizadeh stated on Jan. 5, “South Korea has major economic and trade interests in Iran, and sanctions on Iran will be to the detriment of the South Korean economy.” He further noted, “It seems that if South Korea is moving to mediate between Iran and the European troika [Britain, France and Germany], that can be effective.”

  • In a Jan. 10 interview with the Iranian outlet Fararu, Iranian analyst and commentator Hassan Beheshtipour asserted, “It seems that in the first step, Iran's blocked foreign exchange assets in the two countries of South Korea and Iraq, amounting to 15B USD, will be released. Will it be made available to Iran in cash or will it be sent to Iran in the form of food and medicine? These are issues that have not yet been agreed upon, and future negotiations will determine how Iran will access its blocked assets.” He underscored that Iran will in return likely “suspend 60% enrichment.”

The context/analysis: Iran and the US are engaged in an eighth round of indirect talks on reviving the JCPOA since US President Joe Biden took office in Jan. 2021. Western negotiators and especially US officials have warned Tehran that the window for a revival of the accord may soon close unless a deal is struck.

  • Western diplomats believe that the Islamic Republic may be able to enrich enough uranium for a bomb in just a few weeks. However, turning weapons-grade uranium into a bomb is estimated to take at least two years.

According to South Korea’s foreign ministry, the delegation led by Choi maneuvered to “explore ways to resolve the issue of frozen Iranian assets in Korea" through talks with Iran and in coordination with the United States, Britain, France, and Germany.

  • Iran and South Korea have over the past three years held numerous meetings on the release of an estimated 7B worth of Iranian assets currently frozen in South Korean banks. However, those talks have been unfruitful given that the US has refused to permit the unfreezing of Iran’s assets—including for the purchase of vaccines.

  • As Amwaj.media has previously reported, the deadlock over Iran’s frozen assets has deeply damaged the image of South Korea in Tehran. Bilateral ties have frayed, with a South Korean tanker temporarily seized over alleged “environmental pollution” last year. Moreover, the Islamic Republic in 2021 moved to ban the import of South Korean home appliances.

  • Kayhan daily, whose editor-in-chief is appointed by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has argued that South Korea’s freezing of Iranian assets is “obvious theft.” Of note, prior to the Donald Trump administration’s reimposition of sanctions in 2018, South Korea was the main buyer of Iranian condensate exports.

The future: Choi’s visit to Vienna could be among the first tangible signs of progress on the revival of the JCPOA.

  • It does not appear likely that the US will permit South Korea to release Iran’s assets prior to the reaching of a final deal. However, given that the Biden administration could promptly license the unfreezing of Iranian assets held in foreign banks, such a measure is probable to be among the initial steps of a restoration of the JCPOA.

  • The South Korean visit to Vienna could be related to the efforts in the Austrian capital to identify and verify US steps on the lifting of sanctions, as demanded by Iran.

 

Amwaj.media
Amwaj.media
Amwaj.media
فارسیPersian
فارسیPersian
عربيArabic
عربيArabic