The story: Abu Dhabi Crown Prince and de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) has hosted Recep Tayyip Erdogan for a rare state visit by the Turkish president. The two rivals have over the past year moved to repair ties after years of tension. Erdogan’s trip to the UAE follows a landmark visit to Turkey by MbZ in late November.

The coverage: MbZ rolled out the red carpet for Erdogan as he gave the Turkish president a lavish greeting complete with a military-style parade and airshow.

Emirati singer Hussein Al-Jassmi notably sang one of Erdogan’s favorite songs in Turkish to honor the president. During the 2017-21 blockade of Qatar imposed by the “Arab Quartet” (Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE), Jassmi performed songs that criticized Iran, Qatar and Turkey.

The Emirates News Agency (WAM) reported that MbZ and Erdogan “exchanged cooperation agreements” in meetings at the presidential palace in Abu Dhabi. Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency echoed WAM’s coverage.

WAM elaborated that 13 memoranda of understanding (MOU) were signed between Emirati and the Turkish ministers who accompanied Erdogan. The MOUs call for cooperation in the fields of defense, health, culture, technology, and business.

Dubai-based Al-Bayan noted that Erdogan’s visit will pave the way for a doubling of bilateral trade “in the coming period.” Erdogan was also cited as saying that “economic cooperation is a driver of the relationship between the two countries.”

On social media, Emirati and Turkish academics, influencers and officials praised the rare meeting between MbZ and Erdogan.

Prior to the Turkish president’s arrival, Emirati diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash commended the UAE’s “strong channels of communication with various countries to support the stability and prosperity of the region…Erdogan’s visit to Abu Dhabi comes within this framework.”

Emirati influencer Hassan Sajwani lauded the Abu Dhabi summit, writing that “the UAE and Turkey shaking hands with each other at this time is definitely a smart move, strengthening both politically, economically, and strategically at a global level.” Sajwani in the past derided Erdogan, once labeling him “a threat for the whole region.”

Prominent Emirati academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla asserted that Erdogan’s visit “aims to establish ten years of cooperation instead of tension, communication instead of estrangement…Lesson: anyone that advances one step toward the UAE, [will be met with] the UAE [reciprocally] advancing ten steps.”

Turkey’s Ambassador to the UAE, Tugay Tuncer, called the event “a historic day,” accompanied by a video of Dubai’s famous Burj Khalifa skyscraper adorned with a projection of the Turkish flag.

The context/analysis: Turkey and the UAE continue to improve their relations after nearly a decade of political differences and increasing estrangement over regional conflicts.

Turkey sided with Qatar during the 2017-21 blockade of Doha imposed by the “Arab Quartet.” In Egypt, the UAE supported the 2013 coup that ousted Turkey-backed president Mohamed Morsi. Abu Dhabi and Ankara have also supported opposing sides in the Libyan civil war.

As the UAE and some of its Gulf Arab partners perceive a US withdrawal from the region, Abu Dhabi has sought better relations with some of its regional rivals. In addition to engaging with Turkey, the UAE has resolved some key issues with Qatar—and also made overtures toward Iran.

The recalibration of relations between Turkey and the UAE is driven by trade and security interests. As Amwaj.media previously reported, MbZ met with Erdogan in Ankara in Nov. 2021. The two leaders pledged to bolster bilateral relations, with MbZ signing multiple MOUs and offering 10B USD in strategic investment in Turkey. Of note, the UAE has reportedly shown interest in purchasing drones and other arms from Turkish weapons manufacturers.

The Turkish government is keen to improve its political relationship with the UAE in the hopes of further trade and investment. As the Turkish economy continues to falter under the pressures of inflation and the devaluation of the Turkish lira, Ankara needs more foreign investment and heightened exports to balance its books.

Turkey is scheduled to hold elections next year, Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) needs to improve the economic outlook to retain its parliamentary presence and continue to control the presidency. Erdogan notably recently announced a reduction in taxes on some food supplies to alleviate the higher cost of living caused by rising inflation.

As for the UAE, it hopes to establish greater security partnerships to demonstrate its value to its international partners—particularly the United States. On the economic front, the UAE expects that non-oil trade with Turkey will surpass 30B USD in the next five years. According to the head of the Emirati-Turkish business council, Erdogan’s visit will help propel trade.

The future: Abu Dhabi and Ankara are highly like to continue to explore ways to expand relations, with a focus on commerce, investment and security cooperation.

MbZ could be angling to leverage the growing bilateral relationship into a security partnership in areas where there is an overlap of interests. Erdogan’s reported postponing of an anticipated trip to Saudi Arabia provides the UAE with further incentives to make use of its ‘head start’ in re-engaging with Turkey.

As Erdogan expressed his solidarity with the UAE in its fight against Yemen’s Ansarullah movement—better known as the Houthis—it seems likely that the UAE will target the Turkish defense industry for investment.