The story: Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani visits Tehran amid reports on Doha’s efforts to mediate between Iran and the United States. In a meeting with President Hassan Rouhani, Qatar’s top diplomat stated that his country “will not hesitate to provide any kind of assistance” for a US “return” to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and “the resolution of the sanctions” issue.

The coverage: Rouhani told his Qatari guest that “whenever the United States lifts illegal sanctions and returns to law, Iran will immediately return to all of its obligations under the deal.” Donald Trump in 2018 unilaterally left the accord and reimposed tough sanctions on Iran.

However, despite its declared intention to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the accord is formally known, the Joe Biden administration has said that Iran must be the first to fully comply with the deal’s limits. This has triggered a dispute, as neither Washington nor Tehran is willing to take the initial step.

During his meeting with Rouhani, the Qatari foreign minister notably also delivered a written message from Qatar’s ruler.

Iranian media mostly view the visit as an attempt to mediate over the JCPOA. Describing the trip as an “indirect” signal from the US, the conservative Javan daily, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), wrote on Feb. 16, “The Biden administration appears to be seeking to undermine Iran's political decision-making process by [offering] Iran informal incentives, rather than effectively honoring its commitments.” The daily added that the Qatari diplomat has “probably” received a rebuttal to such an alleged US offer.

Moreover, Amirali Abolfath, an expert on US affairs, told the moderate Entekhab news site on Feb. 15, “The issues and differences between Iran and the United States are quite clear.”  He added, “Improving the relationship does not need mediation...where France and Japan failed to mediate, Qatar won’t be able to do so for sure.”

The context/analysis: The visit to Tehran takes place against the backdrop of two separate calls between the Qatari chief diplomat and US Special Representative for Iran Robert Malley and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Qatar's official news agency quoted the foreign minister as telling the US officials last week that “the State of Qatar is working on de-escalation through a political and diplomatic process to return to the nuclear agreement.”

A few hours before the Qatari chief diplomat’s arrival, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh welcomed Doha’s efforts to rescue the JCPOA. He also noted on Feb. 15 that “ the US honoring its [JCPOA] commitments doesn’t require a message”, hinting at the letter due to be delivered to the Iranian president.

In parallel with the visit, Iran wrote a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to notify it of plans to stop implementing the Additional Protocol, beginning on Feb. 23. The Additional Protocol allows IAEA inspectors to carry out more intrusive inspections of Iran's nuclear sites. The Rouhani administration is adopting this measure in the wake of a law passed by parliament last December. The law obliges the government to terminate implementation of the Additional Protocol, if the US fails to honor its JCPOA commitments by Feb. 21. The stage seems set for an escalation of tensions.

With the end of the Saudi/Emirati-led blockade against it, and amid a renewed round of tension in the region, Qatar now seems determined to fill the role of mediator. Other regional actors such as Oman have previously hosted secret talks between Iran and the US,  between 2012 and 2013. However, of note, Muscat recently seemed to hint a desire for direct US-Iran engagement rather than via third-party mediation. Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi stated on Feb. 11, “I believe the channels are open directly between the foreign policy teams in Washington and Iran. I see no reason why those channels can’t be reactivated.”

The future: As Iran’s Feb. 21 deadline approaches, there will be increased attempts at mediation between Tehran and Washington. However, the Islamic Republic appears determined not to accept any brokering as Iran and the US likely already have direct communication channels.

Besides the deep mistrust between the two countries, the issue of who returns first to the JCPOA has likely been turned into a matter of prestige for Iran. Indeed, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently declared that a US return to the JCPOA before an Iranian return to all limits under the deal is “definite policy”. This is perhaps the reason why Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has in past weeks repeatedly offered a way out of the stalemate, saying that the European Union could “synchronize” or “choreograph” moves to revive the JCPOA.