The story: Protests triggered by water tension and mismanagement in Iran's southwestern Khuzestan province are gaining momentum. The demonstrations have entered a seventh day and continue to draw solidarity. Amid a blame game over the killing of several protesters in past days, there are emerging concerns that a failure to placate the public anger may boost separatist ideologies.

The coverage: Local activists on July 22 stated that they had counted at least five deaths at the hands of security forces cracking down on demonstrations in the oil-rich province. The Iranian authorities, however, challenge those figures, while absolving their forces of any involvement in the deaths.

As the rallies have spread in size and intensity, Khuzestan's chief prosecutor has warned "rioters, mercenaries, ‘hypocrites’ [a derogatory reference to the Mujahideen-e Khalq Organization], separatists and counter-revolutionaries" of a "firm response." However, he also recognized "people's legitimate demands."

State media has blamed "armed terrorists" for the killings of at least two people over the past week, adding that a police officer has been gunned down. Fars News Agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has been particularly promoting the government narrative, with extensive coverage of "terrorists' attempts to exploit" the protests.

Fars also published a series of interviews with individuals who claim to be among those named by some activists as victims of deadly police violence. The news agency claimed that the alleged victims were "alive and kicking" and had their identities used without their knowledge as part of a campaign instigated by foreign-based opposition media.

Videos posted online late July 22 showed the latest rallies in the provincial capital Ahvaz as well as the cities of Susangerd, Behbahan, Shadegan, Mahshahr and Masjed Soleiman. Solidarity protests were reportedly also organized in the city of Yazdanshahr in the central Isfahan province. A wave of support for the protesters in Khuzestan is also spreading among lawyers and activists. In a statement, the Association of Iranian Authors threw its backing behind the protesters, "who seek water but are given bullets and teargas." Earlier this week, prominent dissident lawyer Narges Mohammadi was detained along with several others attending a solidarity event in the capital Tehran.

Meanwhile, a live panel on the protests aired by the London-based Iran International TV has stirred controversy. The debate drew strong negative reactions on Iranian social media after a Norway-based panelist from Iran questioned the “taboo” of discussing the breakup of the country. She argued that the issue of "partitioning" in Iran should no longer be a red line in the public debate, comparing Khuzestan's hypothetical secession from Iran with Scotland’s 2014 bid for independence from the United Kingdom.

The context/analysis: Debates on the recent developments in Khuzestan have mainly centered on the reasons for the water tension—including the ongoing drought—and whether lack of access to sufficient water is the only root cause of the current public fury.

The government argues that the water crisis is not unique to the southwestern province. It has, however, failed to work out a clear strategy to address the ongoing shortages. Short-term solutions such as dispatching water tankers and distributing bottles of mineral water among the local population have only added to the boiling anger. Farmers in particular argue that their livelihoods are in jeopardy due to government mismanagement, which they charge has stripped them of their water rights and shares of local reserves—including in the Houralazim wetland, where a speedy drain-out has tragically displayed the magnitude of the crisis.

On the political level, the protests have featured slogans targeted at Iran's supreme leader and the establishment as a whole, a sign that wider grievances have piled up. Of note, Khuzestan is home to a significant portion of Iran’s ethnic Arab minority, which often decries alleged discrimination.

As the violence spreads with no long-term solution to the water crisis in sight, some observers have posited that the status quo favors separatist groups such as the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz. The Iranian government alleges that the group is backed by its regional rival Saudi Arabia, and has accused it of masterminding a number of deadly attacks—including a 2018 ambush during a military parade in Ahvaz that left over two dozen security personnel and civilians dead.

The future: As mismanagement of limited water resources amid a drought has been coupled with a failure to improve livelihoods and recognize minority rights, the Iranian government seems to be facing a crisis of its own making.

To buy time for longer-term strategies and to soothe the ongoing wrath, the government might resort to traditional solutions, such as engagement with tribal leaders, who maintain significant influence. Moderates within the ruling establishment have concerns that suppressing the current turmoil will only radicalize demonstrators and thus escalate demands.

But an iron-fist crackdown might appear as the immediate solution in the eyes of institutions such as the IRGC.