The story: President Hassan Rouhani has offered a rare public apology for the rolling blackouts which are hitting urban centers across Iran. Officials blame the up to 8-hour long outages on the ongoing drought, heatwave, and illegal Bitcoin mining farms. Amid the crisis, hardliners are portraying moderate Rouhani as incompetent while Reformists say the blackouts are a failure of the political establishment as a whole.

The coverage: In a government meeting aired by the state broadcaster on July 6, the president expressed his “apologies to the dear people who have faced these problems and pain.”

Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi, a spokesman for the state-run Iran Power Generation, Distribution and Transmission Company (Tavanir), told state TV on June 5 that domestic electricity consumption has jumped above 65,000 megawatts (MW), while Iran’s power plants cannot produce more than 55,000 MW. As a result, there is an ongoing shortage of around 10,000 MW, which is necessitating scheduled blackouts.

Rajabi Mashhadi added that the country is experiencing an at least 14% increase in consumption of electricity comparing to previous years. Elaborating on the reasons behind the sudden blackouts, he pinned it on an abnormal rise in temperatures and illegal Bitcoin mining farms as well as the addition of one million new subscribers to the national electricity network.

Meanwhile, MP Mostafa Nakhaei, the spokesman of parliament’s energy commission, revealed that the blackouts are projected to continue for at least another month.

On social media, a video showing the dark critical care unit of a hospital where a blackout and failed emergency power are said to be killing patients has gone viral.

Many Iranians have taken to Twitter and other social media to express their frustration. Using the trending hashtag “power_ outage” in Persian, hardline activist Pouyan Hosseinpour tweeted on July 5 that anyone who would be in the shoes of Rouhani would have sought to leave a good memory behind for the public in his final days in office, but that the president “either doesn’t understand such a thing or doesn’t recognize [Iranians] as his own people.” Of note, conservative President-elect Ebrahim Raisi is set to take office in early August.

Mohammad Rahbari, a Reformist activist, pointed the finger at the whole political system, tweeting on July 4 that the power outages are alongside the parallel water and Covid-19 crises the “most tangible sign of the state’s inefficiency.”

The massive blackouts have triggered protests in several cities, with slogans chanted against the authorities. Videos have also emerged of people shouting “Death to the dictator” from rooftops in reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

On July 6, the hardline Raja News, which is close to Raisi, confirmed the protests, writing that they are a reaction to the “weak management” of the Rouhani administration. The news site added that “some of the protests have turned violent and slogans have been harsh.”

Raja News also urged the parliament, judiciary, and security apparatus to enter the field and think of an initiative to address the blackouts before “the occurrence of a widespread crisis.”

The context/analysis: Discontent is rising in Iran, which is facing a dire economic situation due to mismanagement and US sanctions. The authorities’ handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has imposed additional pressures and claimed over 80,000 lives, has contributed to these sentiments.

With no end in sight to the marathon talks in Vienna on the revival of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran-US tensions are rising—including in Iraq, where armed groups close to Tehran are locked in a clash with American forces. As long as the US remains outside the accord, Iran will not be able to access the tens of billions of dollars of its assets that are frozen due to unilateral American sanctions. In the absence of such a major freeing of assets and normalized oil exports, the Iranian economy will continue to suffer.

As for the direct impacts of the power outages, they are already leading to gatherings that may turn into widespread protests in key provinces like Tehran.

The Islamic Republic is fearful of a repetition of the widespread unrest it faced in Nov. 2019, when angry Iranians took the streets to protest the government’s decision to hike gasoline prices. The situation quickly turned bloody, with hundreds of demonstrators killed by security forces. The unrest was particularly significant given its geographic extent as well as the participation of the poorer classes, who are generally believed to be a pillar of the Islamic Republic. The latter is a clear sign of the widening of the already sizeable gap between the state and society.

The future: If the blackouts keep happening without prior notice, disrupting people’s daily lives, the ongoing protests may gain sufficient momentum to trigger another round of nationwide unrest.

Rouhani is set to remain under major pressure from both the public and his political opponents in the final weeks of his presidency, regardless of whether the authorities may crack down on protests.

As for Raisi, he will be facing a litany of economic, political and social challenges as he takes office in early August. The addition of an electricity crisis may temporarily divert full focus from pursuit of his sought political agenda.