Will Rouhani help decide Iran’s next supreme leader?

The story: Moderate former president Hassan Rouhani (2013-21) has registered to defend his seat in the elections for Iran’s Assembly of Experts next year. The 88-member clerical body is tasked with supervising the performance of the supreme leader—and appointing his successor. The elections for the council next year, held every eight years, are considered vital because the assembly may appoint the person to replace 84-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Hardliners have vehemently attacked Rouhani over his move, questioning whether he is qualified for a seat on the council. Meanwhile, reformist media have charged that the upper echelons of power are being further streamlined towards conservatism ahead of the polls.

The coverage: Rouhani signed up to run in the Assembly of Experts elections on Nov. 11. The vote will be held in March 2024, alongside parliamentary polls. Rouhani is currently serving his third term in the top clerical assembly.

• Rouhani said in a statement issued after his registration that he faced a "difficult choice" between opting for "silence" or re-entering political life—despite knowing the "limitations." He added that it was his "duty to start moving on a difficult and uneven path."
  
  
• Rouhani also called on those in charge of vetting candidates to fulfill their legal duties impartially and avoid "factional love and hatred." The conservative-dominated Guardian Council is tasked with deciding who is fit to run in key national elections.
  
  
• The Guardian council is comprised of six clerics appointed by Khamenei and six jurists approved by MPs from a list provided by the judiciary chief, who himself is an appointee of the supreme leader.

The news of Rouhani’s bid for re-election was not received well by conservative outlets and hardline users on social media.

• Government-run IRNA news agency said Rouhani registered "despite" his recent comments about "public despair" in relation to the previous 2020 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections.

• A presenter on the Iranian state broadcaster criticized Rouhani's political views in a program on Channel 3 on Nov. 12. He said he hoped the Guardian Council would "carry out its duties" in a thinly veiled call for the disqualification of Rouhani. The presenter was suspended the next day.
  
  
• Conservative users online similarly attacked Rouhani, with one post on Twitter/X saying that if Rouhani’s candidacy is approved by the Guardian Council, the "council's fairness should be doubted."

Reformist news site Etemad Online on Nov. 14 reported that at a recent meeting of the Assembly of Experts, conservative member Ayatollah Rahim Tavakkol leveled sharp criticism against Rouhani.

• Tavakkol reportedly slammed Rouhani's performance as president. He also said in an interview later that he believed the two-time president should be disqualified from the elections.

Reformist and moderate voices have come to Rouhani's defense. Some have also decried the recent disqualification of candidates vying for a seat in the parliament in next year’s polls, allegedly for having criticized the government.

• Arman-e Melli charged on Nov. 14 that coordinated efforts aimed at "undermining Rouhani" had been initiated, while moderate Sazandegi criticized the state broadcaster for "becoming a tribune for conservatives" during elections.
  
  
• Hammihan daily said that Rouhani's candidacy would counter the "homogenization" of the political arena—a plan it alleged that some hardliners pursued.

Reformist outlets also noted the disqualification of several prominent lawmakers from running in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

• Reformist MP Masoud Pezeshkian and conservative Ahmad Alirezabeigi were among those disqualified.
  
  
• Alirezabeigi has been critical of Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi over the past year, citing a variety of issues. He was also central in exposing an alleged corruption scandal involving MPs and the auto industry in Apr. 2023.
  
  
• Notably, moderate former lawmaker Ali Motahari has also been barred from running.

Hammihan on Nov. 15 claimed that a "purification" of the political system was happening in favor of conservatives, while prominent Reformist Azar Mansouri said in a Nov. 12 post on Twitter/X that it was not "purification" but rather "homogenization."

The context/analysis: As previously reported by Amwaj.media, some informed sources have said that Rouhani's candidacy is partly at the behest of several influential pro-reform figures.

• These figures are said to include Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic—Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (1900-1989)—as well as former parliamentary speaker Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri (1992-2000), ex-president Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), and former vice president Esh’haq Jahangiri (2013-21).
  
  
• Rouhani on Nov. 9 spoke against "a minority" that he said had "taken over all positions," stressing that "the country belongs to all of us, not any specific faction or group."

Many pro-reform and centrist politicians were sidelined ahead of the 2020 parliamentary elections and the 2021 presidential polls.

• With a narrowed scope for political participation, the executive and legislative branches of power have ended up becoming conservative-dominated. This is a vital dimension to the political equation as Iran is in the grip of leadership succession.
  
  
• Amid the mass disqualification of pro-reform candidates, both the 2020 parliamentary polls and the 2021 presidential elections saw record-low voter turnouts. Of note, hardliners at the time blamed the latter on the Covid-19 pandemic and alleged that "failures" by the Rouhani administration had disillusioned the public.

The future: Given Khamenei's advanced age, the next Assembly of Experts may be tasked with choosing Iran’s next supreme leader.

• It remains to be seen if Rouhani's candidacy will be approved by the Guardian Council. If the moderate politician’s bid for office is rejected, it would highlight conservative domination of power.
  
  
• Even if Rouhani is permitted to run, he will likely nonetheless face conservative dominance in the assembly after the 2024 elections.
  
  
• While some have pointed to a possible contest between Raisi and Rouhani for the leadership of the assembly, informed observers have privately suggested to Amwaj.media that other less high-profile members could secure the position, such as Hashem Hosseini Bushehri.